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eee · 2018年06月07日

如何用justfied pe 考虑高估还是低估

官网题目


PLES RELATED TO KPK INC. AND ITS INDUSTRY

Trailing P/EForward P/EJustified (Fundamental) P/EConsumer Goods Index P/E
14.613.715.014.8

Q. Which of the following best supports Kaminski’s recommendation for KPK? The justified (fundamental) P/E is greater than the:

  1. trailing P/E.
  2. forward P/E.
  3. index P/E.

Solution

A is correct. Kaminski recommends that the club invest in KPK. That would be appropriate if the company is currently undervalued. He has forecasted a share price based on fundamentals (DCF) and has forecasted EPS. Therefore, the club can calculate a justified (fundamental) P/E based on those inputs and compare it with the other P/E values to determine the attractiveness of the stock. The justified (fundamental) P/E would be a better metric to base the decision on than one of the other P/Es because it is supported by company fundamentals. From Exhibit 3, the justified (fundamental) P/E is greater than the trailing P/E. Therefore, KPK is currently undervalued by (15.0 – 14.6) ÷ 14.6 = 2.7%, and the club should invest.

B is incorrect. The forward P/E is not the most reliable P/E, because it is not based on company fundamentals.

C is incorrect. The index is a general comparable and does not represent the value of the company as well as the justified P/E. Therefore, it not as reliable a buy signal.


这个justified fundamental PE 是leading还是trailing?我以为justified trailing PE就和trailing PE比较,leading 就和forward 比较,而答案似乎认为foward PE是与公司fundamental 无关的?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

maggie_品职助教 · 2018年06月08日

1、forward PE=leading pe

2、justified fundamental PE 可以是leading也可以是trailing,主要看你分母是用E0还是预测的E1

3、justified fundamental PE与一般的PEratio最大的区别在于justified PE分子用的是股票的instinct value,而一般的PE用的是market value(这道题trailing和forward pe就是市场价格做分子)

4、这里justified fundamental PE 是leading还是trailing并没有告诉你,但是不管怎么样,他们都小于justified fundamental PE,说明当前市场价格被低估。

5、一般来说,trailing的数据是公司真是发生的数据,没有基于预测所以更加可信。答案就是这个意思。

加油。




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