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Wiscon · 2023年09月22日

请问怎么理解cyclical的意思?

NO.PZ2022120703000093

问题如下:

Excluding the tobacco sector in a passive investment strategy most likely tilts the portfolio towards a more:

选项:

A.cyclical, value-oriented profile.

B.cyclical, growth-oriented profile.

C.defensive, growth-oriented profile.

解释:

B is correct because "incorporating any given set of exclusions or ESG datasets into a passive investment strategy potentially carries unintended consequences, notably by limiting one’s ability to diversify. This may result from portfolio distortion to unwanted factor and market exposure. Despite their weight within a given broader index, reducing or eliminating exposure to certain sectors represents a natural re-weight to the remaining sectors and index constituents. Commonly excluded sectors, like tobacco and fossil fuels, represent a specific profile. Generally speaking, companies in these sectors are more mature and face less pressure to reinvest cash flow into growth-related, capital expenditure programmes. As a result, stable operating margins equate to consistent cash flows and dividend pay-out ratios, which provide defensive, counter-cyclical exposure within portfolios. Indices that exclude or minimize exposure to these sectors will naturally tilt portfolios towards a more cyclical, growth-oriented profile."

A is incorrect because "commonly excluded sectors, like tobacco and fossil fuels, represent a specific profile. Generally speaking, companies in these sectors are more mature and face less pressure to reinvest cash flow into growth-related, capital expenditure programmes. As a result, stable operating margins equate to consistent cash flows and dividend pay-out ratios characteristics of value-oriented profile, which provide defensive, counter-cyclical exposure within portfolios. Indices that exclude or minimise exposure to these sectors will naturally tilt portfolios towards a more cyclical, growth-oriented not value-oriented since such companies are excluded profile."

C is incorrect because "commonly excluded sectors, like tobacco and fossil fuels, represent a specific profile. Generally speaking, companies in these sectors are more mature and face less pressure to reinvest cash flow into growth-related, capital expenditure programmes. As a result, stable operating margins equate to consistent cash flows and dividend pay-out ratios, which provide defensive, counter-cyclical exposure within portfolios. Indices that exclude or minimise exposure to these sectors will naturally tilt portfolios towards a more cyclical not defensive since such companies are excluded, growth-oriented profile."

defensive对应防守型策略,那cyclical呢?

2 个答案

Tina_品职助教 · 2023年10月13日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


在这个问题的背景下,排除烟草行业(通常被认为是一种防御性或价值型投资,因为它们通常在各种经济环境下都能提供稳定的现金流和股息)可能会使投资组合倾向于更多的包括成长型公司。这是因为排除了烟草行业这样的防御性行业后,投资组合将更多地暴露于那些在经济扩张期间可能表现较好的行业和公司,比如科技公司或其他高增长潜力的公司,这些通常被归类为成长型投资。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

Tina_品职助教 · 2023年09月22日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


在金融和投资领域中,"cyclical"(周期性)一般是用来描述那些与经济周期密切相关的公司或资产。换句话说,这些公司或资产在经济好转时通常会表现得相对更好,但在经济衰退时可能会受到较大影响。

与之相对的是“defensive”(防守型或非周期性)公司或资产,这些通常在经济周期的不同阶段都能维持稳定的表现。例如,消费必需品(如食品和医药)通常被认为是防守型资产,因为即使在经济不景气的时候,人们也需要这些产品。

在这个具体的问题和解释中,排除烟草行业(通常被认为是一个更“防守型”的或“非周期性”的行业,因为其收入和利润相对稳定)可能会使投资组合更倾向于包含那些与经济周期有更紧密关联的、更“周期性”的公司。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

Shena · 2023年10月12日

老师你解释的内容我理解了周期性,但是为什么是成长型b而不是价值型a呢?这里的成长型是怎么体现的?

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