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明明要加油 · 2023年09月07日

老师这道题A选项only on是不是有点太绝对了?

NO.PZ2019011002000006

问题如下:

Tim and Wang are two junior credit analysts in a wealth management firm. They are estimating the probability of default of a set of bonds. To estimate the probability of default they can use two models, the structural model and the reduced-form model.

Wang believes reduced-form model is better than the structural model. He made the following reasons:

Reason 1: Structural models require "inside information" best known to the managers of the

company, whereas Reduced-form models are based only on observable variables.

Reason 2: Reduced-form models can explain the economic reasons for default.

Reason 3: Having been developed in 1990s, reduced-form models are more modern, while the structural models are out-of-date as it was developed in 1970s.

According to the information above, which reason is correct?

选项:

A.

Reason 1 is correct.

B.

Reason 2 is correct.

C.

Reason 3 is correct.

解释:

A is correct.

考点:考察Reduced-form model与Structural model的对比

解析:Reason 1是正确的,Structural model适合于公司内部使用,因为要应用到公司的内部数据,而对于Reduced-form model,模型使用的数据可以从市场获得;

Reason 2是Structural model的特点;

Reason 3虽然陈述了事实,但是不构成推荐使用Reduced-form model的原因。两个Model各有优缺点,事实上现在Structural model仍被广泛使用。

B 选项,回归分析里面也是用到了宏观数据的啊?为啥说不能解释呢?

2 个答案

pzqa015 · 2023年09月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


你的标题是:老师这道题A选项only on是不是有点太绝对了?


你的问题是:B 选项,回归分析里面也是用到了宏观数据的啊?为啥说不能解释呢?


额,你到底想问哪个呢? 是想问Only on是不是有点太绝对了吗?之前的回答了为什么B不能解释 the economic reasons for default.


only on没有绝对啊,reduced form model就是用宏观变量建模呀。

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pzqa015 · 2023年09月08日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


structural model解释了为什么发生违约,reduced formed model是用来预测什么时候会违约。这是两个模型最大的区别。


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明明要加油 · 2023年09月11日

老师没回答我的问题啊