NO.PZ2019011002000006
问题如下:
Tim and Wang are two junior credit analysts in a wealth management firm. They are estimating the probability of default of a set of bonds. To estimate the probability of default they can use two models, the structural model and the reduced-form model.
Wang believes reduced-form model is better than the structural model. He made the following reasons:
Reason 1: Structural models require "inside information" best known to the managers of the
company, whereas Reduced-form models are based only on observable variables.
Reason 2: Reduced-form models can explain the economic reasons for default.
Reason 3: Having been developed in 1990s, reduced-form models are more modern, while the structural models are out-of-date as it was developed in 1970s.
According to the information above, which reason is correct?
选项:
A.
Reason 1 is correct.
B.
Reason 2 is correct.
C.
Reason 3 is correct.
解释:
A is correct.
考点:考察Reduced-form model与Structural model的对比
解析:Reason 1是正确的,Structural model适合于公司内部使用,因为要应用到公司的内部数据,而对于Reduced-form model,模型使用的数据可以从市场获得;
Reason 2是Structural model的特点;
Reason 3虽然陈述了事实,但是不构成推荐使用Reduced-form model的原因。两个Model各有优缺点,事实上现在Structural model仍被广泛使用。
B 选项,回归分析里面也是用到了宏观数据的啊?为啥说不能解释呢?