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SHAO · 2023年09月01日

老师，请问终值的概念

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2018103102000042

问题如下：

Jacques is the portfolio manager of AB pension and she recently consider adding PZ Inc. (New York Stock Exchange: PZ) to its portfolio. After carefully considering the characteristics of the company and its competitors, she believes the company will have extraordinary growth for the next 4 years and normal growth thereafter. So, she has concluded that a two-stage DDM is the most appropriate for valuing the stock. PZ’s total dividends paid on 2017  was $0.22. She believes that the growth rate will be 12 percent the next 4 years and 6 percent afterwards. The estimated that the required return is 9 percent. What is the terminal value of the stock based on this approach?

选项：

A.

$12.23.

B.

$20.12.

C.

$31.09.

解释：

A is correct.

考点：DDM,The Gordon Growth Model Equation The & Implied Dividend Growth Rate

解析：A是正确的。如表所示，终值V4= $12.23。

老师，这个问题的终值指P4。


那如果是三阶段DDM呢，比如说0-4年g1, 4-6年g2, 6年后g3，那terminal value是P4吗？

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年09月01日

同学你好，terminal value是指的公司进入永续增长率不变的阶段的所有未来现金流的现值

本题由于在第4年结束以后公司开始进入永续g不变的阶段，也就是将第5年，第6年，以及所有未来的现金流折现到第4年年末的现值就是该股票的终值P4

所以同理，你举的例子里，第六年以后g3开始永续保持不变，所以终值应该是将第7年，第8年以及所有未来的现金流折现到第6年年末的现值，也就应该是P6而不是P4

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NO.PZ2018103102000042问题如下 Jacques is the portfolio manager of pension anshe recently consir aing PZ In(New York StoExchange: PZ) to its portfolio. After carefully consiring the characteristiof the company anits competitors, she believes the company will have extraornary growth for the next 4 years annormgrowth thereafter. So, she hconclutha two-stage M is the most appropriate for valuing the stock. PZ’s totvin paion 2017  w$0.22. She believes ththe growth rate will 12 percent the next 4 years an6 percent afterwar. The estimateththe requirereturn is 9 percent. Whis the terminvalue of the stobaseon this approach? $12.23. $20.12. $31.09. A is correct.考点M,The Gorn Growth Mol Equation The ImplievinGrowth Rate解析A是正确的。如表所示，终值V4= $12.23。看见这个两阶段的M求终值，我直接就开始代入那个t/2××(gs-go)的那个公式了，结果求出来的结果和答案没有一个相符的，想请问是不是我题目没读懂或者公式的基本含义没搞懂

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