积极向上 · 2023年08月31日
The illusion of control is the tendency to overestimate one’s ability to control events that may lead to more frequent trading, greater concentration of portfolio positions, or a greater willingness to employ tactical shifts in their asset allocation.
Finally, the lower turnover ratio relative to the other managers may be an indication of Manager 1’s overconfidence in his investment decisions.
illusion of control 为什么一边造成frequent trading，一边造成turnover ratio低？
lynn_品职助教 · 2023年09月01日
嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：
这两句话（在没有上下文的前提下）其实主语是不同的，第一句是讲 illusion of control，第二句是overconfidence。
illusion of control可能会导致overconfidence，但两个bias不完全一样。 illusion of control 是觉得自己可以控制结果。 overconfidence对自己非常自信，一般表现为self-attibution (把成功归功自己，把失败推给别人) 或illusion of knowlege (以为自己知道的比别人多。比如自己从事医药工作，就买医药公司股票，以为自己对这个行业更了解)。
首先more frequent trading, greater concentration of portfolio positions,是 illusion of control的特征。
原版书 P65 "Consequences of Illusion of Control" ，我把关键词也放在下面，可以参考一下
- "Researchers have found that some investors prefer to invest in companies that they may feel they have some control over, like the companies they work for, leading them to hold concentrated positions. In fact, most investors have almost no control over the companies they work for."
其次lower turnover ratio relative to the other managers may be an indication of Manager 1’s overconfidence
因为过度自信所以敢和其他人不一样，我觉得这里的重点是在比他人低，而不是low turnover ratio。
----------------------------------------------就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！
