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linyuze · 2023年08月28日

经济变量之间关系的变化——不稳定的关系可能会使有关变量变化影响的假设失效

NO.PZ2022122601000058

问题如下:

Francisco Martin and Emma Liu are analysts at the same firm. Martin uses the cyclical indicator approach to formulate his equity market outlook, whereas Liu uses microvaluation analysis to develop her equity market outlook.

Describe two general limitations of Martin’s approach to formulating an equity market outlook.

选项:

解释:

Correct Answer:

Limitations of the Cyclical Indicator Approach are as follows:

ü False Signals – This occurs when a series that is moving in one direction suddenly reverses and nullifies a prior signal, or hesitates, which is difficult to interpret.

ü Currency of the Data and Revisions – Some data series are reported with a lag. Also, revisions in data can change the magnitude of the signal, and even change the direction implied by the original data.

ü Economic Sectors Not Reported – Examples include the service sector, import-exports, and many international series.

ü Changes in Relationships among Economic Variables – unstable relationships might invalidate assumptions about the effects of changes in a variable.

中文解析:

错误信号-这发生在一个方向上移动的序列突然反转,使先前的信号无效,或者犹豫,这很难解释。

数据的时效性和修订-一些数据系列的报告有滞后。此外,数据的修正可以改变信号的大小,甚至改变原始数据所隐含的方向。

未报告的经济部门-例子包括服务业、进出口和许多国际系列。

经济变量之间关系的变化——不稳定的关系可能会使有关变量变化影响的假设失效。

经济变量之间关系的变化——不稳定的关系可能会使有关变量变化影响的假设失效

这句话应该是economitric approach的缺点吧?不是 indicator 的缺点

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年08月29日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这句话应该是economitric approach的缺点吧?不是 indicator 的缺点

是的,同学理解正确。

是这道题,协会给的解析有一些问题。

关于优缺点方面,同学和最新原版书教材保持一致即可。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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NO.PZ2022122601000058 问题如下 FrancisMartin anEmma Liu are analysts the same firm. Martinuses the cyclicincator approato formulate his equity market outlook,whereLiu uses microvaluation analysis to velop her equity market outlook.scritwogenerlimitations of Martin’s approato formulating equity market outlook. CorreAnswer:Limitations of theCyclicIncator Approaare follows:üFalse Signals – This occurswhen a series this moving in one rection suenly reverses annullifies aprior signal, or hesitates, whiis fficult to interpret.üCurrenof the ta anevisions – Some ta series are reportewith a lag. Also, revisions in tacchange the magnitu of the signal, aneven change the rection impliey the originta.üEconomic Sectors Not Reporte–Examples inclu the servisector, import-exports, anmany internationalseries.ü Changes in Relationships among Economic Variables – unstablerelationships might invalite assumptions about the effects of changes in avariable. 中文解析错误信号-这发生在一个方向上移动的序列突然反转,使先前的信号无效,或者犹豫,这很难。数据的时效性和修订-一些数据系列的报告有滞后。此外,数据的修正可以改变信号的大小,甚至改变原始数据所隐含的方向。未报告的经济部门-例子包括服务业、进出口和许多国际系列。经济变量之间关系的变化——不稳定的关系可能会使有关变量变化影响的假设失效。 是不是跟LEI的思路是一样的

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NO.PZ2022122601000058 问题如下 FrancisMartin anEmma Liu are analysts the same firm. Martinuses the cyclicincator approato formulate his equity market outlook,whereLiu uses microvaluation analysis to velop her equity market outlook.scritwogenerlimitations of Martin’s approato formulating equity market outlook. CorreAnswer:Limitations of theCyclicIncator Approaare follows:üFalse Signals – This occurswhen a series this moving in one rection suenly reverses annullifies aprior signal, or hesitates, whiis fficult to interpret.üCurrenof the ta anevisions – Some ta series are reportewith a lag. Also, revisions in tacchange the magnitu of the signal, aneven change the rection impliey the originta.üEconomic Sectors Not Reporte–Examples inclu the servisector, import-exports, anmany internationalseries.ü Changes in Relationships among Economic Variables – unstablerelationships might invalite assumptions about the effects of changes in avariable. 中文解析错误信号-这发生在一个方向上移动的序列突然反转,使先前的信号无效,或者犹豫,这很难。数据的时效性和修订-一些数据系列的报告有滞后。此外,数据的修正可以改变信号的大小,甚至改变原始数据所隐含的方向。未报告的经济部门-例子包括服务业、进出口和许多国际系列。经济变量之间关系的变化——不稳定的关系可能会使有关变量变化影响的假设失效。 microvaluation 方法,都没在讲义上看过啊。

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