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pepperhyp · 2023年08月26日

老师好,这道题是不是主要关注的是文字的叙述方式,而不是当中的数字?

NO.PZ2023012803000005

问题如下:

Client 4 has a history of selecting low-volatility equities and government bonds for his portfolio. Rodriquez presents him with two potential investments for his portfolio. He tells the client that:

  • Investment Y has a 20% chance of incurring a loss.
  • Investment Z has an 80% chance of not incurring a loss.
  • Both investments have the same expected return.
Rodriquez asks Client 4 which investment he would prefer for his portfolio.

Determine, assuming Chee’s bias assessment is correct, which investment (Y or Z) Client 4 would most likely prefer. Justify your response.

选项:

解释:

Framing bias causes an investor to answer a question differently based on the way in which it is asked, or “framed.” Client 4 has a history of selecting low-volatility equities and government bonds, which implies a possible frame of safety in his investments. In this case, Rodriquez presents Client 4 with two alternatives, each with the same probability of capital loss (20% chance of incurring a loss, 80% chance of not incurring a loss). However, because the “Y” description focuses on the investment’s riskiness (20% chance of incurring a loss) and the “Z” description focuses on the investment’s safety (80% chance of not incurring a loss), Client 4’s bias would cause him to focus on the positive characteristics of investment Z and prefer it to investment Y.

老师好,在做本题的时候,是不是主要关注还是叙述的方式,而不是20%和80%这样的数字?

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已采纳答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年08月28日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


是的,可以这样理解

因为站在出题人的角度,数字是编的,只要保证两个概率之和为 1 即可

也可以编成 30% 和 70% 等等

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