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005 · 2023年08月23日

Avg bond price(today)

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NO.PZ202303270300006302

问题如下:

A US-based fixed-income portfolio manager is examining unhedged investments in Thai baht (THB) zero-coupon government bonds issued in Thailand and is considering two investment strategies:

Buy-and-hold: Purchase a 1-year, THB zero-coupon bond with a current yield-to-maturity of 1.00%.

Roll down the THB yield curve: Purchase a 2-year zero-coupon note with a current yield-to-maturity of 2.00% and sell it in a year.

THB proceeds under each strategy will be converted into USD at the end of the 1-year investment horizon. The manager expects a stable THB yield curve and that THB will appreciate by 1.5% relative to USD. The following information is used to analyze these two investment strategies:



(2) Which of the following statements best describes how the expected total return results would change if THB yields were to rise significantly over the investment horizon?

选项:

A.

Both the Buy-and-Hold and Yield Curve Rolldown expected portfolio returns would increase due to higher THB yields.

B.

Both the Buy-and-Hold and Yield Curve Rolldown expected portfolio returns would decrease due to higher THB yields.

C.

The Buy-and-Hold expected portfolio returns would be unchanged and the Yield Curve Rolldown expected portfolio returns would decrease due to the rise in yields.

解释:

C is correct. In a higher THB yield scenario in one year, the Yield Curve Rolldown expected return would fall since a higher THB yield-to-maturity in one year would reduce the price at which the investor could sell the 1-year zero in one year. The Buy-and-Hold portfolio return will be unaffected since the 1-year bond matures at the end of the investment horizon.

请问本题THB yields 上升对Avg bond price(today)没有影响吗?只影响Avg bond price(in 1 year)吗?不是很理解

2 个答案

pzqa015 · 2023年08月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


期初买入价格已经确定了呀,买入后曲线发生了变化,这道题说了rise significantly over the investment horizon,意思就是投资期内利率提高,是买入之后的事。

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pzqa015 · 2023年08月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


本题问的是yield 上升,对total return的影响

total return由五部分组成,根据表格的信息,本题的total return包括两部分,一是price return,用(期末债券价格-期初债券价格)/期初债券价格;二是expected currency return

yield 上升,会导致债券卖出价格下降,所以,对于yield curve rolldown 策略,它的total return会下降;但对于buy and hold策略,它的期末债券价格就是到期拿到的面值,不涉及到卖出债券,所以,它期末的价格是确定的,不受利率曲线变动的影响,所以buy and hold策略的return不变。

这是这道题的解题思路。

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