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youmima · 2023年08月23日

怎么辨别model risk 和spread risk呢?

NO.PZ2023032703000042

问题如下:

Soto explains to Hudgens that the underlying duration-matching strategy is based on the following three assumptions.

1. Yield curve shifts in the future will be parallel.

2. Bond types and quality will closely match those of the liabilities.

3. The portfolio will be re-balanced by buying or selling bonds rather than using derivatives.

Soto’s three assumptions regarding the duration-matching strategy indicate the presence of:

选项:

A.

model risk.

B.

spread risk.

C.

counterparty credit risk.

解释:

A is correct. Soto believes that any shift in the yield curve will be parallel. Model risk arises whenever assumptions are made about future events and approximations are used to measure key parameters. The risk is that those assumptions turn out to be wrong and the approximations are inaccurate. A non-parallel yield curve shift could occur, resulting in a mismatch of the duration of the immunizing portfolio versus the liability.


这里题目1和2不是都说的asset和liability的变动,为什么不是spread risk?这个spread risk至仅仅指credit risk吗?

  1. yield curve shifts in the future will be parallel.
  2. Bond types and quality will closely match those of the liabilities.
1 个答案

pzqa31 · 2023年08月23日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


首先,yc=yb+spread,yb是基准利率,一般用国债收益率,yc是公司债收益率,这个公式表示公司债收益率是国债收益率基础上加spread得到的。


然后,解释什么是spread risk

spread risk是指免疫策略中,负债与资产债券性质不一样,面对收益率曲线变动发生的折现率变化不一致,从而资产价格变化不等于负债价格变化。比如asset 用国债,liab用公司发行的债券,公司债有spread,spread与收益率曲线变动方向相反(收益率曲线上升,spread下降,反之亦然,这是固收最后一章讲到的结论),而国债无spread,那么面对市场基准收益率变化,负债端国债与资产端公司债价格变动是不一致的,使得免疫策略存在风险,这是spread risk。

这道题的第二个假设是:资产端用到的债券的类型与质量与负债一致,表明不存在上面讲的情况,二者折现率应该是相等的,面对收益率曲线变化,变动幅度也应该是相等的,所以不存在spread risk。

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