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台风来了 · 2023年08月20日

theory of storage通常不是伴随着contango现象吗?

NO.PZ2023041004000098

问题如下:

Nabli and Yamata then discuss potential new investments in the energy sector. They review Brent crude oil futures data, which are presented in Exhibit 1.


Yamata presents his research related to the energy sector, which has the following conclusions:

- Consumers have been more concerned about prices than producers have.

- Energy is consumed on a real-time basis and requires minimal storage.

Based on Exhibit 1 and Yamata’s research on the energy sector, the shape of the futures price curve for Brent crude oil is most consistent with the:

选项:

A.insurance theory. B.theory of storage. C.hedging pressure hypothesis.

解释:

The Brent crude oil futures market is in a state of backwardation: The spot price is greater than the price of near-term (i.e., nearest-to-expiration) futures contracts. Commodities (in this case, Brent crude oil) are physical assets, not virtual assets, such as stocks and bonds. Physical assets have to be stored, and storage incurs costs (rent, insurance, inspections, spoilage, etc.). According to the theory of storage, a commodity that is consumed along a value chain that allows for just-in-time delivery and use (i.e., minimal inventories and storage) can avoid these costs. Yamata’s research concluded that energy is consumed on a real-time basis and requires minimal storage. In this situation, demand dominates supply, and current prices are higher than futures prices (state of backwardation).

老师,您好!

theory of storage通常不是伴随着contango现象吗,即期货价格高于现货。看来某个理论下的价格高低现象并不绝对,是吗?麻烦补充一下吧。谢谢!


1 个答案

Lucky_品职助教 · 2023年08月20日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


虽然通常情况下,"theory of storage"可能会与contango现象相关联,但实际上,市场情况可能因多种因素而变化。在某些情况下,由于市场预期、供需因素、政治事件等,backwardation也可能出现。

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