NO.PZ2018123101000043
问题如下:
Exhibit 1 shows the current government spot rates for Countries A, B, and C.
Tyo presents her market views on the respective yield curves for a five-year investment horizon.
Country A: -The government yield curve has changed little in terms of its level and shape during the last few years, and I expect this trend to continue. We assume that future spot rates reflect the current forward curve for all maturities.-
Country B: -Because of recent economic trends, I expect a reversal in the slope of the current yield curve. We assume that future spot rates will be higher than current forward rates for all maturities.-
Country C: -To improve liquidity, Country C’s central bank is expected to intervene, leading to a reversal in the slope of the existing yield curve. We assume that future spot rates will be lower than today’s forward rates for all maturities.-
Based on Exhibit 1 and Tyo’s expectations for the yield curves, Tyo most likely perceives the bonds of which country to be fairly valued?
选项:
A.Country A
B.Country B
C.Country C
解释:
A is correct.
考点:Forward Curve: Forward Pricing Model
解析:对于A国收益率曲线的变动,Tyo预测未来的spot rate,即Future spot rate等于现在时刻的Forward rate。即未来的利率将会实现当前时刻的Forward rate。这一预期意味着A国的债券估值合理,因为当前市场,对债券未来现金流使用的折现率,与Tyo预期的折现率一致,因此债券价格定价合理。
B和C不正确,因为Tyo对两个国家的spot rate曲线的预期与当前时刻反映的Forward rate不同。
对于B国,她预计未来的Spot rate,即Future spot rate将高于当前市场用来折现债券现金流的Forward rate,因此在Tyo眼中,当前的债券价格使用了过低的折现率,债券价格是被高估的。
对于C国,她预计未来的Spot rate将低于当前forward rate;因此,她认为C国债券市场当前使用了过大的折现率,因此C国债券被低估。
题目中的三个结论都是什么意思,想表达什么呢?为啥选择a 不懂。