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徒慕君 · 2023年08月17日

为何我的理解是反的

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NO.PZ201712110200000306

问题如下:

If the Brown and Company forecast comes true, which of the following is most likely to occur? The value of the embedded option in:

选项:

A.

Bond 3 decreases.

B.

Bond 4 decreases.

C.

both Bond 3 and Bond 4 increases.

解释:

A is correct.

All else being equal, the value of a put option decreases as the yield curve moves from being upward sloping to flat to downward sloping (inverted). Alternatively, a call option’s value increases as the yield curve flattens and increases further if the yield curve inverts. Therefore, if the yield curve became inverted, the value of the embedded option in Bond 3 (putable) would decrease and the value of the embedded option in Bond 4 (Callable) would increase.

这个题我的理解是由于长期利率比较稳定,所以是短期利率相对于长期利率上升才会导致曲线倒挂。短期利率上升,putable bond行权概率增大。所以putable option价格上升,callable option价格下降。所以bond 3 embed option increase, bond 4 embed option decrease.

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已采纳答案

pzqa015 · 2023年08月17日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


putable bond是1年后、2年后才可以行权,所以,要预判未来的短期利率变化,如果曲线变平甚至invert,意味着未来长短期利率的spread变小,根据pure expectation theory,长期利率是现在短期利率与未来短期利率的平均,所以,如果短期利率变大,长期利率变小,意味着未来短期利率是下降的,所以,putable bond的embedded option value是下降的。

putable Bond是否行权,不是看现在短期利率的变化,是看未来短期利率的变化。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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