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有点丶尕浪漫逢考必过 · 2023年08月10日

选对了,但是分析角度与答案不一致

NO.PZ2022122601000027

问题如下:

Bader then uses the Singer–Terhaar model and the final shrinkage-estimated VCV matrix to determine the equilibrium expected equity returns for all international asset classes by country. Three of the markets under consideration are located in Country A (developed market), Country B (emerging market), and Country C (emerging market). Bader projects that in relation to the global market, the equity market in Country A will remain highly integrated, the equity market in Country B will become more segmented, and the equity market in Country C will become more fully integrated.

Based on expectations for changes in integration with the global market, all else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that Bader should shift capital from Country A to:

选项:

A.only Country B B.only Country C C.both Countries B and C

解释:

Correct Answer: B

Bader expects the equity market in Country C (an emerging market) to become more fully integrated with the global market while Country A (a developed market) remains highly integrated. All else being equal, the Singer–Terhaar model implies that when a market becomes more globally integrated (segmented), its required return should decline (rise). As prices adjust to a lower (higher) required return, the market should deliver an even higher (lower) return than was previously expected or required by the market. Therefore, the allocation to markets that are moving toward integration should be increased. If a market is moving toward integration, its increased allocation will come at the expense of markets that are already highly integrated. This will typically entail a shift from developed markets to emerging markets.

中文解析:

Bader预计,C国(新兴市场)的股票市场将更加充分地与全球市场整合,而A国(发达市场)仍将保持高度整合。在其他条件相同的情况下,辛格-特哈尔模型表明,当一个市场变得更加全球一体化(细分)时,其要求回报应该下降(上升)。当价格调整到更低(更高)的要求回报时,市场应该提供比之前预期或市场要求更高(更低)的回报。因此,应该增加对正在走向一体化的市场的分配。如果一个市场正在走向一体化,其增加的分配将以牺牲已经高度一体化的市场为代价。这通常需要从发达市场转向新兴市场。

我的分析路径是,越整合意味着分散化程度将进一步增加,从整个组合来讲更有利。

答案中,“当价格调整到更低(更高)的要求回报时,市场应该提供比之前预期或市场要求更高(更低)的回报。”没有理解是什么意思

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年08月11日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


本题其实是要以一个动态视角来看问题。

C就是越来越整合的过程,所以C能享受到这个过程

因为从不整合到整合,要求的风险补偿是越来越低的,所以资产价格是越来越高的。

但是如果一开始就整合就享受不到这个过程。

至于分散化程度。X国去投资一个整合国家带来的分散化程度高,还是投资非整合程度分散化程度高,是要看具体投资的这个国家与X国相似性的高低,这是没有定论的。


那句话的意思就是要求回报率低时,要它折现,会得到一个更高的资产价格,反之亦然。




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