如下

问题如下：

The following international trade information is available for a hypothetical economy:

Following a 12% depreciation in the DCU, the trade balance will be closest to:

选项：

A.–1,674. B.–1,648. C.–1,726.

解释：

Solution: B

中文解析：

对贸易平衡的影响
贸易总额=出口+进口= 4,800 + 6,500 = 11,300
ωx =出口份额
= 4,800 ÷ 11,300 = 0.425 ωm =进口份额
= 6,500 ÷11,300 = 0.575
єML =马歇尔-勒纳交易
加权弹性єML = ωx єx + ωm (єm - 1)
=(0.425 × 0.70) + 0.575 × (0.55 -1) =0.039
基于马歇尔-勒纳贸易加权弹性的贸易差额变化
єML×贸易余额×折旧= 0.039 × 11300 × 0.12 =52.5
新的贸易余额= 4,800 -6,500 + 52.5 =-1,647.5 = -1,648
由于马歇尔-勒纳条件于1990年成立，贬值将减少贸易逆差。
或者，贸易差额的变化可以由进出口变化的百分比计算:
进口减少:-(12% × (1 - 0.55) × 6500) = -351.0
出口增长:12% ×0.7 × 4800 = 403.2
差52.2
贸易差额变动4,800 -6,500 + 52.2 = -1,648(四舍五入)