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上小学 · 2023年08月08日

请问此题在说什么?看不懂,烦请解释。谢谢🙏

NO.PZ2018122701000092

问题如下:

A committee of risk management practitioner discusses the difference between pricing deep out-of-the-money call options on FBX stock and pricing deep out-of-the-money call options on the EUR/JPY foreign exchange rate using the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model. The practitioners price these options based on two distinct probability distributions of underlying asset prices at the option expiration date:

  • A lognormal probability distribution
  • An implied risk-neutral probability distribution obtained from the volatility smile for options of the same maturity

Using the lognormal instead of the implied risk-neutral probability distribution will tend to:

选项:

A.

Price the option on FBX relatively high and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively low.

B.

Price the option on FBX relatively low and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively high.

C.

Price the option on FBX relatively low and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively low.

D.

Price the option on FBX relatively high and price the option on EUR/JPY relatively high.

解释:

A is correct.

考点 Volatility Smile

解析

The implied distribution of the underlying equity prices derived using the general volatility smile of equity options has a heavier left tail and a less heavy right tail than a lognormal distribution of underlying prices. Therefore, using the lognormal distribution of prices causes deep-out-of-the-money call options on the underlying to be priced relatively high.

The implied distribution of underling foreign currency prices derived using the general volatility smile of foreign currency options has heavier tail than a lognormal distribution of underlying prices. Therefore, using the lognormal distribution of prices causes deep-out-of-the-money call options on the underlying to be priced relatively low.

题目不知道什么意思?很多条件都干啥用?答案都分别是什么意思?

3 个答案

李坏_品职助教 · 2023年08月09日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


而外汇期权的implied risk-neutral probability distribution如下:

左右两侧的σ都很大,而lognormal则是左右的σ都是中等水平,所以lognormal的σ小于implied risk-neutral的σ,所以lognormal算出来的外汇虚值看涨期权的价格小于implied risk-neutral的期权价格,也就是A选项说的 price the option on EUR/JPY relatively low.

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

李坏_品职助教 · 2023年08月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


股票期权的BSM模型,有一个前提是股票价格服从对数正态分布,也就是Lognormal,且股票的σ不变。也就是无论股票价格高或者低,其σ都是一样的。


但是现实中的股票σ与股价的关系实际上是下面这个图(下图就是题目所说的"implied risk-neutral probability distribution"):

可以看出来左侧的(股价很低的)implied volatility(就是σ)比右侧的σ更大。


题目中给出的是深度虚值看涨期权,也就是股价很高的时候的看涨期权,对应上图的右侧。可以看出implied risk-neutral 在右侧σ很小,而lognormal则是假定左右σ一样大,所以lognormal的σ大于Implied risk-neutral的σ。σ与期权价格成正相关,所以用lognormal算出来的期权价格更大,也就是A选项说的“Price the option on FBX relatively high”。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

李坏_品职助教 · 2023年08月08日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


题目背景:交易员正在讨论深度虚值的FBX股票看涨期权和深度虚值EUR/JPY外汇期权的BSM模型应用。交易员在对期权进行定价时,用到了两种不同的资产价格分布函数:对数正态分布、基于隐含波动率的分布。

问题:使用对数正态分布进行期权定价,相较于隐含波动率的分布,会有什么后果?


如果是用基于隐含波动率的分布计算股票期权的定价,那么深度虚值股票看涨期权应该是价格比较低,因为股票期权的波动率微笑曲线是左边高右边低(股票价格很低的时候的call option price >股票价格很高时候的call option price),但是用对数正态分布就不存在这个效果,所以A选项说的用对数正态分布计算股票期权的定价会比隐含波动率分布计算的定价更high,是正确的。


如果是用基于隐含波动率的分布计算外汇期权的定价,那么外汇期权应该是价格高的,因为外汇期权的波动率微笑曲线是左右都很高(外汇无论高低,外汇期权价格都偏高),但是用对数正态分布就不存在这个效果,所以A选项说的用对数正态分布计算外汇期权的定价会比隐含波动率分布计算的定价更低,是正确的。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

上小学 · 2023年08月09日

您好还是完全看不懂您解释的。对于股票期权,由于是深度虚值,根据隐含波动率理论,则波动率很低,因为执行价格太高才看涨期权深度虚值。在比较低的右边。既然波动率低,则期权价格低。这和股票市场价格有何关系呢?另外,题目说的用lognormal给期权定价,这是个什么方法呢?股票价格可以假设符合lognormal分布,但这跟期权定价有什么关系呢?谢谢。题目说的用lognormal给外汇期权定价也不知道是什么意思,怎么定价。

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2023-08-02 15:16 1 · 回答

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