consumption outcomes的意思是？

问题如下：

Quantum Credit Advisers, an institutional investment management company, is looking to enhance its equity offerings. It has recently hired David Wu to help construct a quantitative equity rotation strategy. Wu has a background in quantitative modeling of equity markets and is tasked with developing an aggregate earnings forecasts. He is also working on incorporating a target equity risk premium into an equity rotation model. Wu makes the following observations based on his prior experiences:

• Observation 1 The equity premium should be larger than, and positively correlated with, the corporate bond premium.
• Observation 2 Corporate profitability is a leading economic indicator.
• Observation 3 Equities provide superior consumption-hedging properties to high-quality bonds.

Which of Wu’s three observations is least likely correct?

选项：

A.

Observation 3

B.

Observation 2

C.

Observation 1

解释：

A is correct. Observation 3 regarding consumption hedging is incorrect. Because of the pro-cyclicality of economies and corporate profits, equities are not a good hedge against bad consumption outcomes, which is one of the reasons equity investors require a risk premium.

C is incorrect. Corporate profitability tends to sharply recover with any uptick in demand during a recession given leaner cost structures at that time and can be an important indicator of the business cycle.

B is incorrect. Given inferior consumption hedging properties, equity investors should demand a risk premium relative to fixed-income investors. Equity risk premiums tend to be highly correlated with corporate bond spreads.