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carolwang · 2023年08月02日

对题目问法的理解?

NO.PZ2023012803000025

问题如下:

Tiffany Jordan is a hedge fund manager with a history of outstanding performance. Jordan’s reputation has grown over the years as her fund has consistently beaten its benchmark. One of Jordan’s junior analysts, Jeremy Tang, is curious about the out performance and notes the following.

  • Observation 1: In Jordan’s investment process, before she makes the final decision, she always search for most bearish views that might have been missed initially, and attempt to evaluate those thoroughly.
  • Observation 2: In Jordan’s research document, she always includes one good reason why the conclusion might turn out to be wrong.
Based on Tang’s observations, Jordan’s behavior is most likely the remedial actions for:

选项:

A.

social proof bias

B.

overconfidence bias

C.

representativeness bias

解释:

Overconfidence can be the result of placing too much emphasis on specific characteristics of a company or what is being examined and neglecting to fully consider the impact of the economic environment and other information.

Some outcomes or sources of forecasting error can be overlooked. Analysts should be thorough in their search for unconsidered outcomes that might have been missed initially and attempt to evaluate those. One method that can help reduce overconfidence is for an analyst to be required to provide at least one counterargument in the report.

observation 2是对她observation 1中所展现的overconfidence的一种补救,可以这样理解吗?

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年08月03日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


1

不是的哈

观察 1 中并没有体现出 overconfidence 哦

这两个观察,其实都是 Jordan 为了克服预测过程中可能会出现的 overconfidence,而使用的克服方法,都是推荐的做法

2

关于这道题的解题思路,我之前刚好总结过,请同学先参考一下:https://class.pzacademy.com/qa/131868

如果还有疑问,同学可以追问或者评论,我再回答同学的后续疑问哈

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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