NO.PZ2023012803000025
问题如下:
Tiffany Jordan is a hedge fund manager with a history of outstanding performance. Jordan’s reputation has grown over the years as her fund has consistently beaten its benchmark. One of Jordan’s junior analysts, Jeremy Tang, is curious about the out performance and notes the following.
- Observation 1: In Jordan’s investment process, before she makes the final decision, she always search for most bearish views that might have been missed initially, and attempt to evaluate those thoroughly.
- Observation 2: In Jordan’s research document, she always includes one good reason why the conclusion might turn out to be wrong.
选项:
A.social proof bias
overconfidence bias
representativeness bias
解释:
Overconfidence can be the result of placing too much emphasis on specific characteristics of a company or what is being examined and neglecting to fully consider the impact of the economic environment and other information.
Some outcomes or sources of forecasting error can be overlooked. Analysts should be thorough in their search for unconsidered outcomes that might have been missed initially and attempt to evaluate those. One method that can help reduce overconfidence is for an analyst to be required to provide at least one counterargument in the report.
observation 2是对她observation 1中所展现的overconfidence的一种补救,可以这样理解吗?