NO.PZ2022122601000052
问题如下：
A year has passed. The Bank of England (the U.K.’s central bank) has been raising the short term interest rate. Business confidence is starting to decline. Spencer is asked to analyze the U.K. economy and consider how the Bank of England might respond in the short term to economic conditions. He gathers the economic data shown in Exhibit 2.
i. Determine the target short-term interest rate for the Bank of England using the Taylor rule and the data in Exhibit 2. Show your calculations.
ii. Describe the most likely potential negative economic result if the Bank of England bases its interest rate policy on the Taylor rule.
选项：
解释：
Correct Answer:
i. Roptimal = Rneutral + [0.5 x (GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend) + 0.5 x (Iforecast – Itarget)]
Roptimal = 3.5 + [0.5 x (0.3 – 2.2) + 0.5 x (4.4 – 2.0)] = 3.75%
ii. The Taylor rule suggests the Bank of England should target a short-term interest rate of3.75% versus a current short-term interest rate of 5.5%. The most likely potential negative economic result of the Bank of England following the Taylor rule is increased inflation. Since the forecast inflation rate of 4.4% is currently above the target inflation rate of 2.0%, a cut in the interest rate could cause the inflation rate to rise even further away from the target inflation rate. Lowering short-term rates will stimulate output by lowering corporations’ cost of capital.
中文解析：
1.R最优= Roptimal = Rneutral + [0.5 x (GDPgforecast
– GDPgtrend) + 0.5 x (Iforecast – Itarget)]
R最优 = 3.5 + (0.5 x 0.5 (0.3 - 2.2) + (4.4 - 2.0) = 3.75%
2泰勒法则建议英格兰银行将短期利率目标定在3.75%，而不是当前的5.5%。英国央行遵循泰勒规则最有可能产生的潜在负面经济结果是通胀加剧。由于预测通胀率为4.4%，目前高于目标通胀率2.0%，降息可能会导致通胀率进一步上升，远离目标通胀率。降低短期利率将通过降低企业的资金成本来刺激产出。
加上expected inflation, short term target rate 就变成8.15%了，答案就相反了。
