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WhiskeyNAN · 2023年07月27日

这一题跟讲义的公式(第二行)一起理解有点混乱

NO.PZ2018091706000061

问题如下:

Assume that the DM country has what is considered a low-yield safe haven currency while the EM country has a high-yield currency whose value is more exposed to fluctuations in the global economic growth rate. All else equal, the exchange rate for the EM currency will most likely depreciate if the:


选项:

A.

long-run equilibrium value of the high-yield currency is revised upward

B.

nominal yield spread between the EM and DM countries increases over time

C.

expected inflation differential between the EM and DM countries is revised upward

解释:

All else equal, an increase in the expected inflation differential should lead to depreciation of the EM currency.

解析:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)

根据上述公式。所以AB选项错误。

在其它条件相同的情况下,预期通胀率的扩大会加两国的风险溢价之差,从而应会导致新兴市场货币贬值。所以C选项正确。


这一题跟讲义的公式(第二行)一起理解有点混乱,当nominal yield spread增加时,对应EX rate应增加,即考察对象货币升值。本题中是否应该将EM currency作为考察对象?我惯性思维将汇率理解为 EM/DM,得到的答案就是反的。老师可以帮忙解答下吗?谢谢

1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年07月28日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


名义利率 = 实际利率 + 通胀率。通胀率在这里就体现在risk premium。


根据公式:

real exchange rate (A/B) = equilibrium real exchange rate + (real interest rate B - real interest rate A)- (risk premium B - risk premium A)


我们需要拆解,名义利率的变动,是实际利率引起的,还是通胀率引起的。

实际利率高造成名义利率高的,会升值。通胀率高造成名义利率高的,会贬值。


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