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186****8680 · 2023年07月24日

怎么能看出来 题目说的是累积违约概率的趋势呢

NO.PZ2020033003000030

问题如下:

Analysts at Flamingo Bank are analyzing a company's CDS curve. The 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year CDS spreads of this company are 800 basis points, 300 basis points, and 100 basis points, respectively. Which of the following statements best describes the shape of default distribution?

选项:

Default Distribution
Near-Term Slope

A.Flat in short term and upward sloping.

B.Flat in short term and downward sloping.

C.Steep in short term and downward sloping.

D.Steep in short term and upward sloping.

解释:

D is correct.

考点:Hazard Rates-Risk-neutral Hazard Rates, Using CDS to estimate hazard rates

解析:累计违约概率肯定是upward sloping的,短期的风险大,所以比较steep。

怎么能看出来 题目说的是累积违约概率的趋势呢

1 个答案

pzqa27 · 2023年07月25日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


default distribution是违约的分布,说的就是累计违约prob。这个累计违约概率肯定是逐年上升的,因为是累计值,一年一年叠加。那么在图形里,横坐标是年,纵坐标是累计违约概率,这个图形就是呈上升趋势的,英文描述就是upward sloping。

因为短期1y的spread大,就说明短期违约风险更大一些,那么累计prob在短期就会增长的更快,反映在图里就是短期更陡峭,差不多就是我底下画的图的样子,同学可以参考一下~

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!