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卢天悦 · 2023年07月23日

taylor rule里面不是还有一项单独的expected target inflation rate吗,为什么这里没有用到呀

NO.PZ2022122601000051

问题如下:

Leroy researches the current monetary policy environment in a developed country where the fund invests. This country’s central bank has been pursuing a low interest rate policy in an effort to accelerate economic growth following the global financial crisis. A report issued by the firm’s research department indicates that the central bank’s interest rate policy closely follows the Taylor rule.

The central bank recently updated its GDP growth rate and inflation rate forecasts, as shown in Exhibit 2. As a result, Leroy believes that the central bank is likely to change its target short-term interest rate. The central bank has stated publicly that it expects no changes in the GDP trend growth rate, target inflation rate, or neutral short-term interest rate.

Calculate the expected change (direction and amount) in the central bank’s target short-term interest rate based on the Taylor rule. Show your calculations.

选项:

解释:

Correct Answer:

Using the Taylor rule, the target or optimal short-term interest rate can be calculated as follows:

Roptimal = Rneutral + [ 0.5 x (GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend) + 0.5 x (Iforecast – Itarget)]

The previous and updated target interest rates are:

Roptimal previous = Rneutral + [ 0.5 x (1.4% – 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.8% – 2.0%)] =Rneutral –1.65%

Roptimal updated = Rneutral+ [ 0.5 x (1.3% – 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.7% – 2.0%)] =Rneutral –1.75%

The change in the target short-term interest rate is:

Change in Roptimal = Roptimal updated – Roptimal previous = –1.75% – (–1.65%) = –0.10% Therefore, the target or optimal short-term interest rate is expected to decrease by 0.10%.

中文解析:

利用泰勒法则,目标利率或最优短期利率可计算如下:
最优= Rneutral + [0.5 x (gdp预测- gdp趋势)+ 0.5 x (gdp预测- gdp目标)]
以往及最新的目标利率为:
最优先验=Rneutral + [0.5 x (1.4% - 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.8% - 2.0%)] =Rneutral - 1.65%
最优更新=Rneutral + [0.5 x (1.3% - 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.7% - 2.0%)] =Rneutral - 1.75%

短期目标利率的变化为:
最优值=最优更新值-最优前值= - 1.75% -(- 1.65%)= - 0.10%因此,预计短期目标利率或最优利率将下降0.10%。

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笛子_品职助教 · 2023年07月24日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


taylor rule里面不是还有一项单独的expected target inflation rate吗,为什么这里没有用到呀

本题是旧考纲的Taylor公式题目。

旧考纲是不需要加预期通胀的。

按照最新考纲,这个预期通胀是要加进来的。

考试的时候,要加进来的哦。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

卢天悦 · 2023年07月24日

明白啦,谢谢

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NO.PZ2022122601000051 问题如下 Leroy researches the current monetary polienvironment in avelopecountry where the funinvests. This country’s centrbank hbeenpursuing a low interest rate poliin effort to accelerate economic growthfollowing the globfinancicrisis. A report issuethe firm’s researchpartment incates ththe centrbank’s interest rate policloselyfollows the Taylor rule. The centrbankrecently upteits G growth rate aninflation rate forecasts, shown inExhibit 2. a result, Leroy believes ththe centrbank is likely tochange its target short-term interest rate. The centrbank hstatepublicly thit expects no changes in theG trengrowth rate, target inflation rate, or neutrshort-term interestrate.Calculate the expectechange (rection anamount)in the centrbank’s target short-term interest rate baseon the Taylor rule.Show your calculations. CorreAnswer:Using the Taylorrule, the target or optimshort-term interest rate ccalculateasfollows: Roptim=Rneutr+ [ 0.5 x (Ggforecast – Ggtren+ 0.5 x (Iforecast – Itarget)]The previous anuptetarget interest rates are: Roptimalprevious = Rneutr+ [ 0.5 x (1.4% – 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.8% – 2.0%)]=Rneutr–1.65% Roptimalupte= Rneutral+ [ 0.5 x (1.3% – 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.7% – 2.0%)] =Rneutral–1.75% The change in the target short-term interest rate is: Change in Roptimal= Roptimupte– Roptimprevious = –1.75% –(–1.65%) = –0.10% Therefore, the target or optimshort-term interest rate isexpecteto crease 0.10%. 中文解析利用泰勒法则,目标利率或最优短期利率可计算如下:最优= Rneutr+ [0.5 x (g预测- g趋势)+ 0.5 x (g预测- g目标)]以往及最新的目标利率为:最优先验=Rneutr+ [0.5 x (1.4% - 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.8% - 2.0%)] =Rneutr- 1.65%最优更新=Rneutr+ [0.5 x (1.3% - 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.7% - 2.0%)] =Rneutr- 1.75%短期目标利率的变化为:最优值=最优更新值-最优前值= - 1.75% -(- 1.65%)= - 0.10%因此,预计短期目标利率或最优利率将下降0.10%。 题目要求计算target short-term interest rate的变化,没有明确是名义还是实际。答案中计算的是实际target short-term interest rate的变化;如果计算名义target short-term interest rate的变化,是否还要考虑预期通货膨胀率的变化?答案则变为降低0.2%。请问我这样理解对嘛?考试时,如何知道要计算的是名义还是实际?

2023-07-22 22:51 1 · 回答