NO.PZ2022122601000051
问题如下：
Leroy researches the current monetary policy environment in a developed country where the fund invests. This country’s central bank has been pursuing a low interest rate policy in an effort to accelerate economic growth following the global financial crisis. A report issued by the firm’s research department indicates that the central bank’s interest rate policy closely follows the Taylor rule.
The central bank recently updated its GDP growth rate and inflation rate forecasts, as shown in Exhibit 2. As a result, Leroy believes that the central bank is likely to change its target short-term interest rate. The central bank has stated publicly that it expects no changes in the GDP trend growth rate, target inflation rate, or neutral short-term interest rate.
Calculate the expected change (direction and amount) in the central bank’s target short-term interest rate based on the Taylor rule. Show your calculations.
选项：
解释：
Correct Answer:
Using the Taylor rule, the target or optimal short-term interest rate can be calculated as follows:
Roptimal = Rneutral + [ 0.5 x (GDPgforecast – GDPgtrend) + 0.5 x (Iforecast – Itarget)]
The previous and updated target interest rates are:
Roptimal previous = Rneutral + [ 0.5 x (1.4% – 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.8% – 2.0%)] =Rneutral –1.65%
Roptimal updated = Rneutral+ [ 0.5 x (1.3% – 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.7% – 2.0%)] =Rneutral –1.75%
The change in the target short-term interest rate is:
Change in Roptimal = Roptimal updated – Roptimal previous = –1.75% – (–1.65%) = –0.10% Therefore, the target or optimal short-term interest rate is expected to decrease by 0.10%.
中文解析：
利用泰勒法则，目标利率或最优短期利率可计算如下:
最优= Rneutral + [0.5 x (gdp预测- gdp趋势)+ 0.5 x (gdp预测- gdp目标)]
以往及最新的目标利率为:
最优先验=Rneutral + [0.5 x (1.4% - 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.8% - 2.0%)] =Rneutral - 1.65%
最优更新=Rneutral + [0.5 x (1.3% - 3.5%) + 0.5 x (0.7% - 2.0%)] =Rneutral - 1.75%
短期目标利率的变化为:
最优值=最优更新值-最优前值= - 1.75% -(- 1.65%)= - 0.10%因此，预计短期目标利率或最优利率将下降0.10%。
题目要求计算target short-term interest rate的变化，没有明确是名义还是实际。答案中计算的是实际target short-term interest rate的变化；如果计算名义target short-term interest rate的变化，是否还要考虑预期通货膨胀率的变化？答案则变为降低0.2%。请问我这样理解对嘛？
考试时，如何知道要计算的是名义还是实际？
