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SophieZ · 2023年07月20日

A heuristic approach

NO.PZ2022122801000050

问题如下:

Mukasa serves as a trustee of Channel’s defined-benefit pension plan. The plan is legally distinct from Channel’s assets. The company has made contributions sufficient to maintain a fully funded status. It is a tax-exempt fund and must hold 20% of its assets in domestic government bonds in order to maintain its tax-exempt status. The plan’s key objective is to meet current and future pension obligations. The plan’s current allocation is 60% global equities, 20% domestic government bonds, 15% domestic corporate bonds, and 5% cash. (2020 mock PM)

Which approach is least relevant to a strategic allocation for Channel’s pension plan?

选项:

A.

Shortfall risk.

B.

Heuristic approach.

C.

Surplus optimization.

解释:

A heuristic approach is least relevant. Heuristics refers to rules that provide a reasonable but not necessarily optimal solution. Some investors may skip the various optimization techniques and simply adopt an asset allocation mix (such as the “120 minus your age” rule or a 60/40 stock/bond mix).

Shortfall risk is a liability-relative approach focused on the risk of having insufficient assets to pay obligations when due.

Surplus optimization is a liability-relative allocation approach that involves applying mean-variance optimization (MVO) to an efficient frontier based on the volatility of the surplus (known as surplus volatility or surplus risk) as the measure of risk.

按照题目的分配和经验法则几乎是一样的,不太明白为何A heuristic approach是不相关的?

1 个答案

lynn_品职助教 · 2023年07月21日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


The plan’s current allocation is 60% global equities, 20% domestic government bonds, 15% domestic corporate bonds, and 5% cash.


同学是认为符合60/40 stock/bond mix对吗?这就是题目的陷阱啦


heuristic approach经验法则是无脑使用60/40,而这道题It is a tax-exempt fund and must hold 20% of its assets in domestic government bonds in order to maintain its tax-exempt status. 


它放20%在国债是有避税的原因的,表面看上去似乎是一样,但是实际却有区别。


看一下为什么A和C相对来说更加relevant。


 The plan’s key objective is to meet current and future pension obligations.

目标是cover养老金的liability


The company has made contributions sufficient to maintain a fully funded status. 

以及保持fully funded状态。


Shortfall risk这个概念在机构IPS中出现得更多,本身是指组合的价值跌到超过某个临界值。这个概念对很多投资品都可以使用。


具体在养老金里面一般就是要求PV(assets)不得小于PV(liability),所以和题干中是不谋而合的


未来有两种途径可以减少shortfall risk,一种是增加assets return>liability discount rate。另外一种是公司就很有可能需要增加新的contribution来补足这个敞口(shortfall)。


Surplus optimization是 liability-relative allocation,和题干中要求cover未来的支出也是符合的。

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