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Mahoosive · 2023年07月11日

怎么理解contradictory condition

NO.PZ2018091901000054

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist. Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk decides to focus on Country Y. Wakuluk makes the following observations:

Observation 3 The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase, with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions.

Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

选项:

A.

invert.

B.

flatten.

C.

steepen

解释:

C is correct.

The current yield curve for Country Y suggests that the business cycle is in the slowdown phase (curve is flat to inverted), with bond yields starting to reflect contractionary conditions (i.e., bond yields are declining). The curve will most likely steepen near term, consistent with the transition to the contractionary phase of the business cycle, and be the steepest on the cusp of the initial recovery phase.

解析:

Y国目前的收益率曲线表明,商业周期正处于放缓阶段(曲线从平向反方向),债券收益率开始反映出紧缩的状况(债券收益率正在下降)。这条曲线在短期内很可能会变陡,与商业周期向收缩阶段的过渡保持一致,并在初始复苏阶段的尖端变得最陡。

所以只有C选项正确。

如题,是指收益率曲线inverted状态吗?


然后invert状态的yield curve变得更加invert(例如短期更高,长期更低)算不算steepen呢,从斜率来看是的,但是一般题目里的steepen一般指的都是短期更低长期更高,initial recovery阶段的那种情况,这个理解对吗?

1 个答案
已采纳答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年07月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


如题,是指收益率曲线inverted状态吗?


Hello,亲爱的同学~


我们注意上述红线的描述,在本题,收益率曲线的状态,并不是完全和经济周期一致,它有一定的领先性。比如这题的已知条件,经济周期是slowdown,而收益率曲线已经开始反应contraction的状态了。


所以这里的收益率曲线,理解成Steepen状态更好。


然后invert状态的yield curve变得更加invert(例如短期更高,长期更低)算不算steepen呢,从斜率来看是的,

steepen是指收益率曲线变陡峭。短期更高,长期更低,收益率曲线是更平坦了,不算steepen。

steepen是指收益率曲线的斜率变大。而短期更高长期更低,是斜率更小。所以不是steepen。


但是一般题目里的steepen一般指的都是短期更低长期更高,initial recovery阶段的那种情况,这个理解对吗?

理解对。

contraction和initial recovery,收益率曲线都是steepen。

这道题里也是一样的含义,也是短期更低长期更高。


我们注意这道题的问题法:

1)已知收益率曲线已经在反应contraction了。

2)Based on Observation 3, Wakuluk most likely expects Country Y’s yield curve in the near term to:

注意near term,在不久的未来。


现在是contraction,不久的未来,或者继续contraction,或者进入initial recovery。这两个经济周期下的曲线都是steepen。


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