开发者:上海品职教育科技有限公司 隐私政策详情

应用版本:4.2.11(IOS)|3.2.5(安卓)APP下载

Arnie · 2023年07月11日

基础班讲义P323

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201601050100001706

问题如下:

Which of Whitacre’s three statements about fed funds futures is correct?

选项:

A.

Statement 1

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 3

解释:

A is correct.

Typical end-of-month (EOM) activity by large financial and banking institutions often induces “dips” in the effective federal funds (FFE) rate that create bias issues when using the rate as the basis for probability calculations of potential Federal Open Market Committee rate moves. If EOM activity increases the price for the relevant fed funds contract, the FFE rate would decline. A decline in the FFE rate would decrease the probability of a change in the fed funds rate. To overcome this EOM bias, data providers have implemented various methods of “smoothing” EOM dips.

Statement 2 is incorrect because the probabilities inferred from the pricing of fed funds futures usually do not have strong predictive power, especially for the longer-term horizon.

Statement 3 is incorrect because, to derive probabilities of Fed interest rate actions, market participants look at the pricing of fed funds futures, which are tied to the FFE rate—that is, the rate used in actual transactions between depository institutions, not the Fed’s target fed funds rate.

中文解析:

表述1正确,大型金融和银行机构月底的活动,往往会导致实际联邦基金利率的“下降”

表述2是不正确的,因为从联邦基金期货价格推断的概率通常没有很强的预测能力,特别是长期来看。

陈述3是不正确的,因为要推导美联储利率行动的概率,市场参与者要看联邦基金期货的定价,它与FFE利率挂钩,FFE是指存款机构之间实际交易的利率,而不是美联储的目标联邦基金利率。

讲义P323说FFE是actually transacted between depository institution ,not Fed‘s target funds rate, 为什么呢?

市场间,银行之间的借贷不是FFR吗?为什么是FFE呢?

美联储的taeget 是不是为FFR,FFE是市场的投资者对于未来利率的预期,但是这里又出现了真实的银行的贷款利率影响fed fund futures的价格,这个逻辑没搞清楚

1 个答案

pzqa31 · 2023年07月11日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


FFE:指的是The effective federal funds rate,即存款机构之间实际交易的利率。


联邦基金期货合约中隐含的利率叫做Expected FFE rate。公式为Fed funds futures contract price = 100 – Expected FFE rate. 这里是市场预期值。


计算美联储下次加息或者降息25bp概率的公式中使用的是联邦基金期货合约中隐含的利率,即Expected FFE rate。


federal funds target rate,是由FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)决定,并通过公开市场操作达成。美联储通过下次加息或者降息25bp,来引导FFE达到federal funds target rate。


陈述3这个解释的意思是:联邦基金期货的定价与FFE利率挂钩,FFE是基于实际情况的,这是相对target(主观预测)来讲的。

----------------------------------------------
就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

  • 1

    回答
  • 0

    关注
  • 495

    浏览
相关问题

NO.PZ201601050100001706 问题如下 Whiof Whitacre’s three statements about fefun futures is correct? A.Statement 1 B.Statement 2 C.Statement 3 A is correct. Typicenof-month (EOM) activity large financianbanking institutions often inces “ps” in the effective ferfun (FFE) rate thcreate biissues when using the rate the basis for probability calculations of potentiFerOpen Market Committee rate moves. If EOM activity increases the prifor the relevant fefun contract, the FFE rate woulcline. A cline in the FFE rate woulcrease the probability of a change in the fefun rate. To overcome this EOM bias, ta provirs have implementevarious metho of “smoothing” EOM ps. Statement 2 is incorrebecause the probabilities inferrefrom the pricing of fefun futures usually not have strong prective power, especially for the longer-term horizon.Statement 3 is incorrebecause, to rive probabilities of Feinterest rate actions, market participants look the pricing of fefun futures, whiare tieto the FFE rate—this, the rate usein actutransactions between pository institutions, not the Fes target fefun rate. 中文解析表述1正确,大型金融和银行机构月底的活动,往往会导致实际联邦基金利率的“下降”表述2是不正确的,因为从联邦基金期货价格推断的概率通常没有很强的预测能力,特别是长期来看。陈述3是不正确的,因为要推导美联储利率行动的概率,市场参与者要看联邦基金期货的定价,它与FFE利率挂钩,FFE是指存款机构之间实际交易的利率,而不是美联储的目标联邦基金利率。 statement1说的是大型金融机构或者银行机构的典型月末活动经常会引起FFE rate的下降。月末跨月资金紧张,利率大概率上升,大型金融机构在月末的时候对冲利率上升的需求会上升,因而short fefunfutures的需求会上升,使得fefunfutures的价格下降,对应的FFE rate就会上升(fefunfutures pri=100-FFE rate)。

2024-09-17 11:19 2 · 回答

NO.PZ201601050100001706 问题如下 Whiof Whitacre’s three statements about fefun futures is correct? A.Statement 1 B.Statement 2 C.Statement 3 A is correct. Typicenof-month (EOM) activity large financianbanking institutions often inces “ps” in the effective ferfun (FFE) rate thcreate biissues when using the rate the basis for probability calculations of potentiFerOpen Market Committee rate moves. If EOM activity increases the prifor the relevant fefun contract, the FFE rate woulcline. A cline in the FFE rate woulcrease the probability of a change in the fefun rate. To overcome this EOM bias, ta provirs have implementevarious metho of “smoothing” EOM ps. Statement 2 is incorrebecause the probabilities inferrefrom the pricing of fefun futures usually not have strong prective power, especially for the longer-term horizon.Statement 3 is incorrebecause, to rive probabilities of Feinterest rate actions, market participants look the pricing of fefun futures, whiare tieto the FFE rate—this, the rate usein actutransactions between pository institutions, not the Fes target fefun rate. 中文解析表述1正确,大型金融和银行机构月底的活动,往往会导致实际联邦基金利率的“下降”表述2是不正确的,因为从联邦基金期货价格推断的概率通常没有很强的预测能力,特别是长期来看。陈述3是不正确的,因为要推导美联储利率行动的概率,市场参与者要看联邦基金期货的定价,它与FFE利率挂钩,FFE是指存款机构之间实际交易的利率,而不是美联储的目标联邦基金利率。 Statement 2 为什么不对

2024-07-06 12:32 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201601050100001706问题如下 Whiof Whitacre’s three statements about fefun futures is correct? A.Statement 1B.Statement 2C.Statement 3 A is correct. Typicenof-month (EOM) activity large financianbanking institutions often inces “ps” in the effective ferfun (FFE) rate thcreate biissues when using the rate the basis for probability calculations of potentiFerOpen Market Committee rate moves. If EOM activity increases the prifor the relevant fefun contract, the FFE rate woulcline. A cline in the FFE rate woulcrease the probability of a change in the fefun rate. To overcome this EOM bias, ta provirs have implementevarious metho of “smoothing” EOM ps. Statement 2 is incorrebecause the probabilities inferrefrom the pricing of fefun futures usually not have strong prective power, especially for the longer-term horizon.Statement 3 is incorrebecause, to rive probabilities of Feinterest rate actions, market participants look the pricing of fefun futures, whiare tieto the FFE rate—this, the rate usein actutransactions between pository institutions, not the Fes target fefun rate. 中文解析表述1正确,大型金融和银行机构月底的活动,往往会导致实际联邦基金利率的“下降”表述2是不正确的,因为从联邦基金期货价格推断的概率通常没有很强的预测能力,特别是长期来看。陈述3是不正确的,因为要推导美联储利率行动的概率,市场参与者要看联邦基金期货的定价,它与FFE利率挂钩,FFE是指存款机构之间实际交易的利率,而不是美联储的目标联邦基金利率。 读半天答案,回去看statement3看半天都不知道在说什么意思,请老师详细解读一下

2023-07-24 08:48 1 · 回答

NO.PZ201601050100001706 问题如下 GlobMega (Global) is a versifiefinanciservices firm. Yasuko Regan, senior trar, anMarcus Whitacre, junior trar, both work on the firm’s rivatives sk. ReganWhitacre assist in structuring animplementing tras for clients in the financiservices instry thhave limiterivatives expertise. ReganWhitacre are currently assisting one of Global’s clients—Monatize, asset management firm—with two of its portfolios: Portfolio A anPortfolio B.Portfolio A is a bonportfolio composesolely of US Treasury bon. Monatize haskeGlobto quote the number of Treasury futures contracts necessary to fully hee this bonportfolio against a rise in interest rates. Exhibit 1 presents selecteta on Portfolio the relevant Treasury futures contract, anthe cheapest-toliver (CT bonAfter internscussion, Monatize elects to not hee Portfolio A but rather crease the portfolio’s mofieration to 3.10. Regasks Whitacre to compute the number of Treasury futures contracts to sell in orr to achieve this objective. Regtells Whitacre to assume the yielcurve is flat.Portfolio B is a $100,000,000 equity portfolio inxeto the S P 500 Inx, with excess cash of $4,800,000. Monatize is requireto equitize its excess cash to fully investe anthe firm rects Globto purchase futures contracts to so. To replicate the return of Portfolio B’s target inx, Whitacre purchases S P 500 futures contracts, a priof 3,300 per contract, thhave a multiplier of $250 per inx point ana beta of 1.00.Monatize’s CFO anRegscuss two potentiheing strategies for Portfolio B to proteagainst a hypotheticextreme sell-off in equities. Regfirst suggests thMonatize coulenter into a totreturn equity swap, whereMonatize agrees to pthe return on the S P 500 anreceive a fixeinterest rate pre-specifietes in exchange for a fee.Regnext suggests thMonatize coulalternatively hee Portfolio B using varianswaps. Monatize’s CFO asks Regto calculate whthe gain woulin five months on a purchase of $1,000,000 vega notionof a one-yevarianswon the S P 500 a strike of 15% (quoteannuvolatility), assuming the following:■ Over the next five months, the S P 500 experiences a realizevolatility of 20%; ■ the enof the five-month perio the fair strike of a new seven-month varianswon the S P 500 will 18%; an The annuinterest rate is 1.50%.ReganWhitacre scuss the use of ferfun futures contracts to infer probabilities of future monetary polichanges. Whitacre makes the following three statements about fefun futures contracts:Statement 1 Typicenof-month activity large financianbanking institutions often inces “ps” in the effective fefun rate.Statement 2 Especially for the longer-term horizon, the probabilities inferrefrom the pricing of fefun futures usually have strong prective powerStatement 3To rive probabilities of FerReserve interest rate actions, market participants look the pricing of fefun futures, whiare tieto the FerReserve’s target fefun rate.Whitacre then proposes to RegthGlobexplore opportunities in bonfutures arbitrage. Whitacre makes the following two statements:Statement 4 If the basis is positive, a trar woulmake a profit “selling the basis.” Statement 5 If the basis is negative, a trar woulmake a profit selling the bonanbuying the futures. Whiof Whitacre’s three statements about fefun futures is correct? A.Statement 1 B.Statement 2 C.Statement 3 A is correct. Typicenof-month (EOM) activity large financianbanking institutions often inces “ps” in the effective ferfun (FFE) rate thcreate biissues when using the rate the basis for probability calculations of potentiFerOpen Market Committee rate moves. If EOM activity increases the prifor the relevant fefun contract, the FFE rate woulcline. A cline in the FFE rate woulcrease the probability of a change in the fefun rate. To overcome this EOM bias, ta provirs have implementevarious metho of “smoothing” EOM ps. Statement 2 is incorrebecause the probabilities inferrefrom the pricing of fefun futures usually not have strong prective power, especially for the longer-term horizon.Statement 3 is incorrebecause, to rive probabilities of Feinterest rate actions, market participants look the pricing of fefun futures, whiare tieto the FFE rate—this, the rate usein actutransactions between pository institutions, not the Fes target fefun rate. 中文解析表述1正确,大型金融和银行机构月底的活动,往往会导致实际联邦基金利率的“下降”表述2是不正确的,因为从联邦基金期货价格推断的概率通常没有很强的预测能力,特别是长期来看。陈述3是不正确的,因为要推导美联储利率行动的概率,市场参与者要看联邦基金期货的定价,它与FFE利率挂钩,FFE是指存款机构之间实际交易的利率,而不是美联储的目标联邦基金利率。 Statement 1Typicenof-month activity large financianbanking institutions often inces “ps” in the effective fefun rate.Q1Typicenof-month activity large financianbanking institutions 这个描述的是市场上面真实的银行间的FFR的情况吧,为啥和effective fefun rate挂钩呢?Q2如果说银行间借贷变多,需求变多,那么真实的FFR应该是上升才对,(美联储通过公开市场操作,收紧银根,MS变少,利率变高);

2023-07-11 10:10 1 · 回答