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坏呼呼嘿嘿 · 2023年07月10日

这个答案指的是50th percentile吗

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问题如下:

Malala Ali, a resident of the hypothetical country of Caflandia, has sought the advice of an investment adviser concerning her retirement portfolio. At the end of 2017, she is 65 years old and holds a portfolio valued at CAF$1 million. Ali would like to withdraw CAF$40,000 a year to supplement the corporate pension she has begun to receive. Given her health and family history, Ali believes she should plan for a retirement lasting 25 years. She is also concerned about passing along a portion of her portfolio to the families of her three children; she hopes that at least the portfolio’s current real value can go to them. Consulting with her adviser, Ali has expressed this desire quantitatively: She wants the median value of her bequest to her children to be no less than her portfolio’s current value of CAF$1 million in real terms. The median is the 50th percentile outcome.

The asset allocation of her retirement portfolio is currently 50/50 Cafastani equities/Cafastani intermediate-term government bonds.

The following Exhibit gives the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. The lowest curve represents, at various ages, levels of real wealth at or below which the 10% of worst real wealth outcomes lie (i.e., the 10th percentile for real wealth); curves above that represent, respectively, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles for real wealth.


Is the current asset allocation expected to satisfy Ali’s investment objectives?

解释:

From Exhibit, we see that the median terminal (at age 90) value of the retirement portfolio in real dollars is less than the stated bequest goal of CAF$1 million. Therefore, the most likely bequest is less than the amount Ali has said she wants. The current asset allocation is not expected to satisfy all her investment objectives.

这个答案指的是50th的percentile吗

1 个答案

lynn_品职助教 · 2023年07月11日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


这个答案指的是50th的percentile吗


是要中位数高于1M才行。


She wants the median value of her bequest to her children to be no less than her portfolio’s current value of CAF$1 million in real terms. The median is the 50th percentile outcome.这句话的意思是希望中位数可以高于1M,中位数是50th percentile outcome。


所以说要50th percentile这根线高过1M才能算是满足投资目标的。


这个图的具体看法我纯用语言描述可能会有些晦涩,建议听一下基础班R13-Monte Carlo Simulation-2倍速16:10的地方~

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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