NO.PZ2022122801000030
问题如下:
Malala Ali, a resident of
the hypothetical country of Caflandia, has sought the advice of an investment
adviser concerning her retirement portfolio. At the end of 2017, she is 65
years old and holds a portfolio valued at CAF$1 million. Ali would like to
withdraw CAF$40,000 a year to supplement the corporate pension she has begun to
receive. Given her health and family history, Ali believes she should plan for
a retirement lasting 25 years. She is also concerned about passing along a
portion of her portfolio to the families of her three children; she hopes that
at least the portfolio’s current real value can go to them. Consulting with her
adviser, Ali has expressed this desire quantitatively: She wants the median
value of her bequest to her children to be no less than her portfolio’s current
value of CAF$1 million in real terms. The median is the 50th percentile
outcome.
The asset allocation of her retirement portfolio is currently 50/50
Cafastani equities/Cafastani intermediate-term government bonds.
The following Exhibit gives the results of the Monte Carlo simulation. The
lowest curve represents, at various ages, levels of real wealth at or below
which the 10% of worst real wealth outcomes lie (i.e., the 10th percentile for
real wealth); curves above that represent, respectively, 25th, 50th, 75th, and
90th percentiles for real wealth.
Is the current asset allocation expected to satisfy Ali’s investment objectives?
解释:
From Exhibit, we see that the median terminal (at age 90) value of the retirement portfolio in real dollars is less than the stated bequest goal of CAF$1 million. Therefore, the most likely bequest is less than the amount Ali has said she wants. The current asset allocation is not expected to satisfy all her investment objectives.
这个答案指的是50th的percentile吗