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xiaodi · 2023年07月09日

Share repurchases与DDM的关系？

  1. CFA II
  2. Equity

NO.PZ2023032701000012

问题如下：

Kwaza asks Khan to investigate the most appropriate models for valuing utility companies. She tells Khan about the following points mentioned in various research reports on the utilities sector.

• Report 1: A resurgence in domestic manufacturing activity will generate longterm growth in earnings and dividends that exceeds the cost of equity.

• Report 2: Share repurchases are expected to increase. The report expresses confidence in the forecasts regarding the magnitude and timing of these repurchases.

• Report 3: The report forecasts earnings growth of 4.5%. The key growth drivers are increases in population and business creation associated with stable GDP growth of 2.75%.

Which sector report best describes a situation in which the Gordon growth model could be used to value utility stocks?

选项：

A.

Report 1

B.

Report 2

C.

Report 3

解释：

because the Gordon growth model can accurately value companies that are repurchasing shares when the analyst can appropriately adjust the dividend growth rate for the impact of share repurchases.

Share repurchases可以用在DDM上是逻辑是什么啊？是可以通过回购算出来效果相同的div的意思吗？


然后第三个为什么不对呢？我看了你对其他学员的解释，说这里并没有说div有增长，经营有增长不代表div有增长。

我能理解这个解释，但是就像我之前问的那个题目：历史有分红也不代表未来有分红，所以不能用DDM。。

怎么判断出题人到底想考什么。。。？

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年07月09日

同学你好，首先，题目这里对回购的描述是这种回购的时间和金额都是可预测的，每次回购公司的股价就会相应的上涨，上涨的这部分金额对持股的股东来说就是变相的分红（因为股价上涨了，想要获得现金的这种分红的话，自己卖出一些持股即可），所以如果是可预测的，规律的回购的话，那就符合最标准的“未来的分红是可预测的”这个条件

report 3不对有两个点，第一是题目只说了预测earnings的增长率是4.5%，但是没有提及分红的增长率，而DDM和GGM都是对分红的增长率有固定的可预测的要求；第二，虽然earnings预测是按照4.5%增长， 但是题目又说推动earnings增长的因素其增长率只有2.75%——和4.5%不一样，就是说明按照这个驱动因素来说，4.5%的增长率是不可持续的，应该会下降，但是由于没有给出下降的规律及时间，所以最终导致earnings本身的增长率也不确定了


这类题目其实都是矮子里面拔高子，三个里挑一个最错的，或者三个里挑一个最对的，不代表被认为正确的那个就完美无缺了，但是择优原则决定只能这么选

Katherine · 2024年03月27日

想问一下回购的股票变成库存股了，即改变了equity的内部分配，虽然并不会影响equity的总量变化，但这个情况为什么不是违反了clean surplus relation？

王园圆_品职助教 · 2024年03月27日

同学你好，本题在讨论的是GGM 模型的适用范围，并没有讨论RI model的适用范围，那违不违反clean surplus relation有什么关系呢？

GGM适用范围里，并不要求公司的Equity只是由NI带来的呢

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