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mino酱是个小破货 · 2023年07月09日

为啥财政平衡会改善,短期利率上升大于长期利率,私人部门借债压力大

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NO.PZ202105270100000202

问题如下:

At the investment committee meeting, the firm’s chief economist predicts that the economy will enter the late expansion phase of the business cycle in the next 12 months.

Discuss, based on the chief economist’s prediction, the implications for the following:

i. Bond yields

ii. Equity returns

iii. Short-term interest rates

解释:

Bond yields:

In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, bond yields are usually rising but more slowly than short-term interest rates are, so the yield curve flattens. Private sector borrowing puts upward pressure on rates while fiscal balances typically improve

Equity returns :

In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, stocks typically rise but are subject to high volatility as investors become nervous about the restrictive monetary policy and signs of a looming economic slowdown. Cyclical assets may underperform while inflation hedges, such as commodities, outperform.

Short-term interest rates :

In the late expansion phase of the business cycle, short-term interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes restrictive because the economy is increasingly in danger of overheating. The central bank may aim for a soft landing

债券收益率:
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段,债券收益率通常会上升,但比短期利率上升的速度要慢,因此收益率曲线会变平。私人部门给借贷给利率带来上行压力,而财政平衡通常会改善。


股权回报率:
在商业周期扩张的后期阶段,股市通常会上涨,但由于投资者对限制性货币政策和经济放缓迹象感到紧张,股市会出现高波动性。周期性资产可能表现不佳,而通胀对冲资产,如大宗商品,则表现出色。


短期利率:
在商业周期的后期扩张阶段,由于经济日益面临过热的危险,货币政策变趋紧,短期利率通常会上升。央行可能以软着陆为目标。

为啥财政平衡会改善,短期利率上升大于长期利率,私人部门借债压力大

4 个答案
已采纳答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年07月10日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


因为在经济刚开始复苏扩张的时候,政府会通过积极财政政策去促进经济发展,这会导致财政赤字。

但是到了扩张晚期,政府会逐步开始收手,财政赤字有所减少。财政平衡关系得到改善。

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加油吧,让我们一起遇见更好的自己!

源_品职助教 · 2023年07月11日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


原文逻辑并非说私人部门借债会导致政府收支平衡。

而是从私人和公共(政府)两个部门情况分别阐述,它们现在的表现都是经济扩张晚期这个原因导致的。两者之间是平行的关系。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2023年07月10日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


短期利率升高对私人借债影响最大(它是融资拆解的基准利率)。长期利率通常是受政府发行债券的影响。

所以一旦短期利率升高,私人借贷就变难了。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

mino酱是个小破货 · 2023年07月10日

我不是不理解私人部门借债问题,我是在想为什么私人部门借债会导致政府收支平衡。谢谢

源_品职助教 · 2023年07月10日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


因为货币政策对于利率影响要比财政政策来的快,幅度也大。

因从货币政策是直接作用短期利率的。而长期利率要受到短期利率传导,并且受到财政政策影响。

所以短期利率的上升幅度要更大。

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

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