NO.PZ202208100100000402
问题如下：
Which of Testa’s reasons for the future course of the USD/EUR exchange rate in 2009 is most consistent with HNW’s assessment?
选项：
A.Reason 1 B.Reason 2 C.Reason 3解释：
Solution
A is correct.
HNW’s assessment was that the euro was likely to appreciate against the US dollar within the next six months. Reason 1, higher real rates in euro-based countries, is consistent with an appreciation of the euro. Higher euro rates will attract “foreign” investors and drive up demand for the euro as they acquire those investments.
B is incorrect. Reason 2, the potential default of several euro-based countries from their excessive debt loads, would result in a lower foreign risk premium (i.e., the US dollar would be less risky) and should lead to a depreciation of the euro.
C is incorrect. Reason 3, a decline in the US trade deficit (i.e., net exports), means that for the United States, imports decreased relative to exports, resulting in lower demand for the euro, and it should weaken relative to the US dollar.
中文解析：
当前预测欧元相比于美元在接下来的6个月会升值，问三个原因中哪一个是支持这个预测的。
原因2：如果几个以欧元为基础的国家可能会因其过度的债务负担而违约，这将导致欧元的吸引力下降，从而使得欧元贬值，原因2不对。
原因3：美国贸易赤字(指进口额大于出口额)下降，意味着对美国来说，进口相对于出口下降，导致对欧元的需求下降，欧元相对于美元应该走弱，原因3不对。
原因1：欧元的实际利率上升。这一现象会吸引外资流入，增加对欧元的需求，从而使得欧元升值。另外，本题很容易的排除掉原因2和3是错误的，至于原因1，确切的说是当欧元的实际利率上升时，短期内欧元是升值的，但长期来看，外资终究会撤走，到时候欧元会贬值。而本题中的6个月就可以认为是短期的，所以原因1是可选的。
如果本国的trade deficit下降，那么本国的current account balance不是应该升高？然后本国会拿着钱投资外国，导致本国的capital account balance下降，从而导致本国的汇率下降，而外国的汇率上升？
