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Lich · 2023年07月06日

真实的variance为啥更小呢?平滑后波动更小,真实不应该更大么?求教老师

NO.PZ2022122601000044

问题如下:

O'Reilly responds: Another bias results from the use of appraisal data in the absence of market transaction data. Appraisal values tend to be less volatile than market determined values for identical assets. The result is that calculated correlations with other assets tend to be biased upward in absolute value compared with the true correlations, and the true variance of the asset is biased downward.

With respect to his explanation of appraisal data bias, O'Reilly most likely is:

选项:

A.incorrect, because the true variance of the asset is biased upward. B.incorrect, because calculated correlations with other assets tend to be biased downward in absolute value C.

correct

解释:

Correct Answer: B

O'Reilly's explanation of appraisal data bias is incorrect because calculated correlations with other assets tend to be smaller in absolute value compared with the true correlations. O'Reilly is correct in that appraisal values tend to be less volatile than market-determined values for identical assets, and the true variance (and standard deviation) of the asset is biased downward.

中文解析:

O'Reilly对评估数据偏差的解释是不正确的,因为与其他资产的计算相关性在绝对值上往往小于真实相关性。O'Reilly是正确的,因为对于相同的资产,评估值往往比市场决定的价值波动更小,而且资产的真实方差(和标准差)是向下倾斜的。

ppraisal values tend to be less volatile than market-determined values for identical assets, and the true variance (and standard deviation) of the asset is biased downward.

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年07月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


真实的的确是应该更大。

但是因为缺少数据,所以我们才会平滑,理论上我们是因为不知道真实的是多少,才会用平滑的数据代替真实数据。

题目解析的意思是,用平滑后的小方差去代替真实的大方差。就把真实的大方差给低估变小了。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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NO.PZ2022122601000044 问题如下 O'Reilly respon: Another biresults from the use of appraisalta in the absenof market transaction tAppraisvalues tento beless volatile thmarket terminevalues for inticassets. The result isthcalculatecorrelations with other assets tento biaseupwarinabsolute value comparewith the true correlations, anthe true varianofthe asset is biasewnwarWith respeto hisexplanation of appraista bias, O'Reilly most likely is: A.incorrect, because the truevarianof the asset is biaseupwar B.incorrect, because calculatecorrelations with otherassets tento biasewnwarin absolute value C.corre CorreAnswer: BO'Reilly'sexplanation of appraista biis incorrebecause calculatecorrelationswith other assets tento smaller in absolute value comparewith the truecorrelations. O'Reilly is correin thappraisvalues tento lessvolatile thmarket-terminevalues for inticassets, anthe truevarian(anstanrviation) of the asset is biasewnwar中文解析O'Reilly对评估数据偏差的是不正确的,因为与其他资产的计算相关性在绝对值上往往小于真实相关性。O'Reilly是正确的,因为对于相同的资产,评估值往往比市场决定的价值波动更小,而且资产的真实方差(和标准差)是向下倾斜的。 ten to biaseupwar 是翻译为高估了嘛答案中的最后一句,真实的方差是向下倾斜的,怎么理解?

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NO.PZ2022122601000044 问题如下 O'Reilly respon: Another biresults from the use of appraisalta in the absenof market transaction tAppraisvalues tento beless volatile thmarket terminevalues for inticassets. The result isthcalculatecorrelations with other assets tento biaseupwarinabsolute value comparewith the true correlations, anthe true varianofthe asset is biasewnwarWith respeto hisexplanation of appraista bias, O'Reilly most likely is: A.incorrect, because the truevarianof the asset is biaseupwar B.incorrect, because calculatecorrelations with otherassets tento biasewnwarin absolute value C.corre CorreAnswer: BO'Reilly'sexplanation of appraista biis incorrebecause calculatecorrelationswith other assets tento smaller in absolute value comparewith the truecorrelations. O'Reilly is correin thappraisvalues tento lessvolatile thmarket-terminevalues for inticassets, anthe truevarian(anstanrviation) of the asset is biasewnwar中文解析O'Reilly对评估数据偏差的是不正确的,因为与其他资产的计算相关性在绝对值上往往小于真实相关性。O'Reilly是正确的,因为对于相同的资产,评估值往往比市场决定的价值波动更小,而且资产的真实方差(和标准差)是向下倾斜的。 平滑后,和其他资产的相关性是变小还是变大呢?为什么?有什么逻辑去?

2023-12-23 16:30 1 · 回答