NO.PZ2022052301000004
问题如下：
Amelia Montgomery, Philly’s analyst responsible for covering the consumer discretionary sector, attended an investor briefing with the management team for Cole & Garn. Philly’s investment committee is particularly interest in Cole & Garn since the stock is held in many of the portfolios they manage.
Montgomery informs the committee that company management provided a favorable summary of the previous year and offered ambitious guidance for future earnings. She reminds the group that management is susceptible to behavioral biases and that they tend to be overconfident with an inclination to overestimate the likelihood of favorable outcomes. She felt that the best way to deal with management biases was to maintain a disciplined and systematic research approach.
Remembering her days as a junior analyst, Yang cautioned that discounting management’s comments and guidance could be problematic and detrimental to performance.
Who is most likely correct concerning how to deal with the ambitious earnings guidance and the behavioral biases of Cole & Gam’s management team?
选项：
A.Yang
Montgomery
Neither Montgomery nor Yang
解释：
Montgomery is correct.
The best way to deal with Cole & Gam’s cognitive biases regarding the interpretation of information is by maintaining a disciplined and systematic approach. Focusing on metrics and comparable data rather than what is descriptive or unverifiable, can assist forecast accuracy and consistency of approach across research.
“they tend to be overconfident with an inclination to overestimate the likelihood of favorable outcomes.”文章中有提到overconfident，为什么不是emotional bias，用分析就是不适合的。
