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Feeling · 2023年07月01日

请问这句可以是overconfident的论据吗?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ201511190100000202

问题如下:

Discuss how Gerber displayed overconfidence bias and cite one example to support this statement. Distinguish between the availability bias and the overconfidence bias.

解释:

Gerber displayed overconfidence bias by having too much faith in his “superior knowledge of the health care industry.” Overconfidence bias and the related illusion of knowledge bias result when individuals overestimate their knowledge levels and abilities. Overconfidence bias has aspects of both cognitive and emotional errors but is classified as emotional because the emotional aspect dominates. Emotional biases, which stem from impulse or intuition, may be considered to result from reasoning influenced by feelings. These biases are difficult to correct.

Overconfidence is primarily an emotional bias and is thus different from availability bias which is an information-processing bias and a cognitive error. Cognitive errors result from faulty reasoning and analysis. The individual may be attempting to follow a rational decision-making process but fails to do so because of cognitive errors. Gerber perceives the foundation’s investment allocation and stock selection as appropriate, and does not process all of the information available to him. He notes that ABC should be monitored closely because of the fact he is not familiar with startup companies; however, he does not process information that goes beyond his knowledge base to see that the investment itself is problematic. Although the overconfidence and availability biases are clearly related, Gerber can make better investment decisions by focusing on the cognitive error aspects of his behavior. Cognitive biases are easier to correct for than emotional biases, which are based on how people feel.

he decides it is appropriate based on Ludwigs’ involvement and their past success with similar ventures. 如题。

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王琛_品职助教 · 2023年07月03日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


1

我个人认为不是特别合适哈

同学所引用的这句题干,更像是在描述 Gerber 具有 Representativeness

而且是从 Representativeness 的定义层面去描述的,即根据 Ludwigs 过去在相似投资上的成功,去推导判断未来的投资也能成功

2

但是这种思路,有可能会忽视基础概率或是忽视样本量

因为过去相似的投资,可能是大浪淘沙的结果

一将功成万骨枯,一个成功投资的背后,可能是无数失败的投资

仅仅盯着小样本量的相似的成功投资,去推演未来的投资也能成功,更像是反映 Representativeness 

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

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2022-06-25 18:46 1 · 回答