CME基础班PPT 墨迹版p123和p124页

嗨，从没放弃的小努力你好：

在horizon structure假设下，长期的预期就会忽略周期性的影响。

比如，现在是经济谷底，那我预测未来经济是要上涨的（因为长期要忽略周期的影响，目前的谷底是暂时的，它终归要回去，这就是horizon structure假设）所以通胀就是要上升的，反之亦然。不客气~

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加油吧，让我们一起遇见更好的自己！

嗨，爱思考的PZer你好：

这两页的内容还是有区别的

这两句话都是原版书的原话，都是在在教材P194，

第一个截图里说是顺周期的，这个结论是基于，周期模式是已经知晓的情况下（Because cyclical pattern of inflation is known）。

第二个截图里说是逆周期，是介于“horizon structure”这个假设。

这两类假设的区别，原版书也做出了解释，供你参考

Because the cyclical pattern of inflation is well known, inflation expectations will also be procyclical.

 It is important, however, to differentiate inflation expectations by horizon.

Very long-term inflation expectations should be virtually unaffected by cyclical fluctuations provided investors maintain confidence in the central bank’s target.

Short horizon expectations will tend to have about the same amplitude as actual inflation.

Inflation, and therefore inflation expectations, over intermediate horizons will be a blend of the different phases of the current and subsequent cycles.

Hence, the amplitude of expectations will decline with horizon—again, provided investors do not lose confidence in the central bank’s target.

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虽然现在很辛苦，但努力过的感觉真的很好，加油！