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erin_hi1990 · 2023年06月23日

怎么理解upward sloping yield curve意味着短期利率高于长期利率?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202304040200002301

问题如下:

In the current interest rate environment, using a required return on equity estimate based on the short-term government bond rate and a historical ERP defined in terms of a short-term government bond rate would be expected to:

选项:

A.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates upward.

B.

bias long-term required return on equity estimates downward.

C.

have no effect on long-term required return on equity estimates.

解释:

A is correct. The required return reflects the magnitude of the historical ERP, which is generally higher when based on a short-term interest rate (as a result of the normal upward-sloping yield curve), and the current value of the rate being used to represent the risk-free rate. The short-term rate is currently higher than the long-term rate, which will also increase the required return estimate. The short-term interest rate, however, overstates the long-term expected inflation rate. Using the short-term interest rate, estimates of the long-term required return on equity will be biased upward.

怎么理解upward sloping yield curve意味着短期利率高于长期利率?

1 个答案

王琛_品职助教 · 2023年06月25日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


1

不是哦

如果是 upward-sloping yield curve,其实是正常情况

yield curve 的横轴是时间,纵轴是利率

upward-sloping 意味着短期利率,小于长期利率,是正常情况

就好比现在中国的银行定期存款,1年利率,低于5年利率

2

如果加了 inversion,则说明是反过来的

即,短期利率,高于了长期利率

这是特殊情况,因为题干背景有说该国最近四年经历战争

也请参考基础班讲义墨迹版 P137

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