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Lulubaobao · 2023年06月22日

怎么理解此处的countercyclical

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NO.PZ202205190400000101

问题如下:

Q. Discuss the relevance of the endowment’s spending policy to Brodka’s expressed concerns.

解释:

Solution

In voicing his concerns, Brodka is cautioning that a higher allocation to illiquid investments may have adverse effects on the endowment’s spending rate and risk profile. Kemney University’s spending policy is an example of a geometric smoothing rule, sometimes called the Yale formula. It is intended to bring about a predictable pattern of distributions for better planning of resource deployment through its programs across varying conditions, even as extreme as the 2008 global financial crisis.

While this spending policy would be consistent with an investment objective of achieving long-term returns that support the spending rate while preserving the value of the endowment in real terms over time, the policy design also incorporates a smoothing, countercyclical element. This leads to lower spending rates in a period of sustained strong investment returns but higher spending rates in a protracted weak return environment.

按照公式,基金market value高的话,spending也会高,看上去是cyclical?

2 个答案

lynn_品职助教 · 2023年11月09日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


请问,“所以公式看上去是顺周期的,但这其实是结果”这句话是什么意思?能多解释一下吗


同学要结合上个同学的提问来一起看,其实前面是对这个知识点的解析,这句话是回答“按照公式,基金market value高的话,spending也会高,看上去是cyclical?”,这个提问的。


意思就是并不是顺周期,而是我们进行了smoothing的处理后,它变成了顺周期。

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lynn_品职助教 · 2023年06月24日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


按照公式,基金market value高的话,spending也会高,看上去是cyclical?


这个考点是endowment’s spending policy,在基础班讲义的110-113页,如下图。


视频在基础班private foundations:liabilities and investment horizon1倍速4分钟处。


但是答案中提到的geometric smoothing rule(Yale formula)是老考纲中的说法


现在原版书中只在Quinco case里提到了,其实就是hybrid,视频在Case study:Quinco case第一个视频两倍速07:30分处。


顺周期不能直接通过公式看的,因为这个方法或者说公式的目的就是smoothing,


具体来说,这种政策设计考虑到了市场波动和经济周期的影响,以避免在经济下行期间过度支出,同时在经济复苏期间适度增加支出,以平滑支出水平并确保基金的长期稳定性。这种政策设计可以帮助保持基金的长期可持续性,并为基金的未来增长奠定基础。


所以公式看上去是顺周期的,但这其实是结果,所以解答中是没有错的。


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pseudonym · 2023年11月09日

请问,“所以公式看上去是顺周期的,但这其实是结果”这句话是什么意思?能多解释一下吗

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