尽管一个股票一年看似预测12次，但是某些策略（例如投资低P/E股票）会持续好几个月，那么这几个月的预测就不是独立的。因此BR被高估。

问题如下：

Nick Young is concerned that Goudon Partners, one of his money managers, overestimates its expected active return because Goudon overstates its strategy breadth. Young makes two notes about his concern:

Note 1: Although Goudon claims that the number of independent asset decisions is high because it uses 200 stocks, many of these stocks cluster in industries where the same general analysis applies to several stocks.

Note 2: Goudon claims that each stock is independent and evaluated each month, or 12 times per year. These analyses are not independent because some of their strategies, such as favoring a particular industry or favoring value stocks, persist beyond one month. For example, a strategy of favoring low-P/E stocks will persist for several months and the investment decisions are not independent.

If his judgments are correct, are Young’s notes about the overstatement of breadth correct?

选项：

A.

Only Note 1 is correct.

B.

Only Note 2 is correct.

C.

Both Notes 1 and 2 are correct.

解释：

C is correct.

If the decisions about each of the 200 stocks are not independent, and if the decisions about a stock from one month to the next are not independent, then Goudon Partners is overstating its estimates of its breadth and its expected active returns.

考点：breadth

解析： Note 1 正确，200只股票中有cluster-扎堆现象，扎堆在某些行业中并且使用相同的分析方法。因此尽管声称200只股票都是独立预测的，但采用相同的分析方法说明扎推行业的股票预测之间的相关性系数比较高，说明BR是被高估的。

Note 2正确，尽管一个股票一年看似预测12次，但是某些策略（例如投资低P/E股票）会持续好几个月，那么这几个月的预测就不是独立的。因此BR被高估。