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玛卡巴卡 · 2023年06月13日

波动率曲线

NO.PZ2021120102000033

问题如下:

An active fixed-income manager is evaluating the relative performance of an investment-grade corporate versus a high-yield corporate debt allocation in a fixed-income portfolio.

Which of the following analytical model assumption changes is most likely to reduce the future value of the high-yield portfolio relative to the investment-grade holdings?

选项:

A.

Steepening of the benchmark yield volatility curve.

B.

Decreased likelihood of an economic slowdown.

C.

Increased likelihood of a flight to quality associated with bullish benchmark yield curve flattening (long-term rates fall by more than short-term rates do).

解释:

C is correct. Under a “flight to quality” scenario, macroeconomic factors driving government bond YTMs lower cause high-yield bond credit spreads to rise because of an increased likelihood of and expected higher severity of financial distress.

This relationship is captured in the difference between empirical and analytical duration measures.

A 波动率曲线的横纵坐标是什么?为什么波动率曲线变陡说明短期利率下降呢?


1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2023年06月15日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


纵坐标是收益率波动率。

这道题问的是什么时候HYB相对于IG的价值下降,那么有两个结论要记住:经济表现好时,HYB相对IG的价值上升,经济表现差时,HYB相对于IG的价值下降,所以,这道题的问题就变成了什么时候经济会变差。

收益率波动率曲线变陡,意味着短期波动率下降,也就是短期风险下降,是经济变好的迹象;所以,A选项说收益率波动率曲线变陡,意味着经济表现好而不是表现差。

收益率波动率曲线通常是短端变动幅度超过长端,所以,变平可以简单理解为短端波动率上升,变陡可以理解为短端波动率下降,原因是风险通常都是发生在短期,长期随着时间的消化,风险会逐步释放,所以长端波动率变动幅度小于短端,可以形象记忆为手里握着绳子,摔动绳子的话,离手近的一端抖动的最剧烈,离手远的地方可能不怎么抖动。

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