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郎布斯吃苹果 · 2023年06月05日

Wider bid–ask spreads in a market downturn create opportunities for portfolio managers to add value to portfolios哪里错了?

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NO.PZ202209060200004505

问题如下:

Ashley West is the Managing Director of Credit Strategies at Mt. Pleasant Advisers (MPA). She oversees a group of strategists, analysts, and traders who contribute to managing more than $50 billion in fixed-income securities. She has gathered her group for their weekly investment strategy meeting, where they are currently focused on higher expected volatility in the markets. West makes the following comments:

West begins a discussion with her trader, Daniel Island, regarding return compensation for investing in corporate bonds. Island tells West, “When I am evaluating the price of a corporate bond, the screen on my Bloomberg terminal shows several spread measures. Some measures are better than others. Dealers often will quote me a spread to Treasuries whose maturity does not match the bond’s maturity.”

Charles Stone joins the conversation. He is MPA’s credit strategist and coordinates the recommendations of the analysts to portfolio managers. The analysts have provided him with data for three corporate bonds in the media sector that include the credit rating, spread duration, z-spread, and expected loss severity. He asks the analysts to provide data for three additional measures that he feels are required for the portfolio managers to select the most attractive bond using relative value analysis. The measures include expected probability of default, rating agency credit outlook, and historical sector default rates.

West likes to balance the bottom-up approach for portfolio construction with a top-down approach. She provides portfolio managers with a macro factors report containing two sections that they use as part of their investment process. Section 1 shows macro factors that she considers relevant for credit investing and includes corporate profitability, economic growth, currency movements, changes in expected market volatility, key rate durations, and default rates. Section 2 contains risk measurements that are used for credit portfolio management and includes average credit rating, average spread duration, duration times spread, average OAS, duration, and effective convexity.

West is concerned about liquidity risk in the credit markets. She believes that since the Great Recession, liquidity has declined, and she asks Stone for his opinion on the topic. Stone replies, “First, trading volume has declined across credit markets, even for higher-quality sectors. As a result, liquidity management has become less relevant to portfolio managers as a means of adding alpha to portfolios. Second, spread changes are more pronounced during times of outflows in high-yield markets relative to investment-grade markets, particularly during times of stress. Therefore, macro forecasting of the economic and credit cycle would aid in positioning the portfolio to compensate for liquidity risk. Third, bid–ask spreads can vary over time and are a good indicator of liquidity. Wider bid–ask spreads in a market downturn create opportunities for portfolio managers to add value to portfolios.”

Stone fields a call from Edisto Palma, an MPA portfolio manager in the Madrid office. Palma is frustrated with the negative interest rate environment present in the European Union (EU) debt markets resulting from the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing programs. He tells Stone he is considering buying securities outside of the EU market to pick up additional yield. Stone informs Palma that he is sympathetic with the situation but that there are implications to buying securities outside his EU benchmark, whether they are from developed or emerging markets. Stone outlines three suggestions for Palma. First, he should evaluate whether the spread advantage is negated by the cost of a currency hedge. Second, he should avoid local currency investments in countries where the exchange rate is pegged. Third, he should ensure that the timing of the credit cycles across markets coincides.

Question


Stone’s comments to West regarding liquidity risk in credit markets is most likely correct with regard to:

选项:

A.spread changes. B.liquidity management. C.bid–ask spreads.

解释:

Solution

A is correct. Liquidity management has become more relevant in generating alpha for portfolios since the financial crisis. Stone’s second point regarding spread changes relates to outflows, and its implications for portfolio management are correct. His third point is correct with regard to bid–ask spreads varying over time and being a good indicator of liquidity but is incorrect about bid–ask spreads benefiting portfolio managers, because trading costs are higher. More volatile market conditions often have a negative effect on bid–ask spreads, and therefore, trading costs can detract from portfolio performance.

B is incorrect because his first point is incorrect. Liquidity management has become more relevant to portfolio managers as a means of adding alpha to portfolios.

C is incorrect because his third point is incorrect. More volatile market conditions often have a negative effect on bid–ask spreads, and therefore, trading costs can detract from portfolio performance.

bid ask spread和流动性不是反向关系么?即widen,spread越大,流动性差,流动性风险越大。

10 个答案

AM1989 · 2023年07月14日

啊,原来如此,明白了,有劳老师


pzqa31 · 2023年07月13日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


我是说2的表述不对,应该是价格对利率的敏感度,不是price sensitivities,但是你要写价格对利率的敏感度,那其实就和1一样了。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

AM1989 · 2023年07月13日

啊?老师,IG have more price sensitive 和HYB have less price sensitive 不是一样的吗?

pzqa31 · 2023年07月07日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


1.3对,2不对,可以说HYB have lower price sensitivity to interest rate changes than IG bond,其实说的还是说的1。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

AM1989 · 2023年07月07日

天呐,还好您提醒了我,那老师,IG相对于HYB有以下特点:

1,more sensitive to changes in interest rates

2, more price sensitive

3, less sensitive to changes in credit spreads


应该是这样对吗?

pzqa31 · 2023年07月07日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


但是选项A为什么正确呢,investment grade bond 不是对changes in credit spreads 更加敏感么,为什么原文说spread changes are more pronounced during times of outflows in high yield 却是对的呢?


---同学,你记反了,应该是投机级别(high yield)的债券对credit spread 的变动更敏感。

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虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

AM1989 · 2023年07月07日

啊,您的回答内容是对的,而且和同学说的内容一致,只是并不是题眼而已。


但是选项A为什么正确呢,investment grade bond 不是对changes in credit spreads 更加敏感么,为什么原文说spread changes are more pronounced during times of outflows in high yield 却是对的呢?



AM1989 · 2023年07月07日

因为答案说原文关于bid ask spread的变化是对的,所以您的回答是不是存在问题呢?

AM1989 · 2023年07月07日

老师,同学在问题中描述的思路,为什么不能用于解决这道题呢?

pzqa31 · 2023年06月06日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


liquidity risk越小,则liquidity spread越小,反之越大。

liquidity risk越大,也会导致bid-ask spread变大。

这道题的意思是在市场不好的时候,流动性风险加剧,此时bid-ask spread变大,会提高交易成本,抵减收益。

----------------------------------------------
虽然现在很辛苦,但努力过的感觉真的很好,加油!

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