NO.PZ201511190100000506
问题如下:
The recent technical analysis department memo is most likely evidence of:
选项:
A.anchoring.
B.a confirmation bias.
C.the gambler’s fallacy.
解释:
C is correct.
The gambler’s fallacy is a cognitive behavioral bias in which an analyst wrongly projects a reversal to a long-term trend. This reflects a faulty understanding about the behavior of random events. The analyst expects a pattern that has diverged from the long term average to reverse within a specific period of time. The memo’s statement that technology and consumer goods sectors should rebound within a short time period demonstrates the gamble’s fallacy.
是否可以提供几个anchor的具体数值是从什么场景来的?
我的理解中,anchor最大的可能性就是:1)历史均值;2)分析师一致预期
因此,我感觉mean reversion应该和anchor是比和gambler fallacy更加相关的。。