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fresh · 2023年06月01日

Carry trade 跟 positive roll yield 有什么关系?

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NO.PZ201601050100001503

问题如下:

Identify two strategies Delgado should use to earn a positive roll yield. Describe the specific steps needed to execute each strategy.


解释:


Given that the base currency (the US dollar) is trading at a forward premium, the hedge requires the sale of US dollar forward, resulting in a positive roll yield. The concept of roll yield is very similar to forward rate bias and the carry trade. Here, Delgado is suggesting a strategy to pursue when there is a negative roll yield, because a hedger trading against the forward bias would be buying US dollars at a forward premium instead of selling them. The carry trade strategy of borrowing in low-yield currencies and investing in high-yield currencies is equivalent to trading the forward rate bias, not against it.

中文解析:

基于整个题干的背景可知:本币是EUR,外币是USD。因此担心外币贬值,需要short forward on EUR/USD(也就是解析里面说的base currency应该是USD)

现在美元存在远期溢价,即F>S,所以short forward on EUR/USD的头寸,计算roll yield=F-S/S也会有正的收益。

另外因为美元的利率低于欧元的利率,可以执行carry trade策略,借低利率货币投资于高利率货币,其中低利率货币又叫做forward premium currency,高利率货币又叫做forward discount currency。

如题,看了历史提问,还是很糊涂,麻烦老师解惑,谢谢

1 个答案
已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2023年06月02日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同答案中的1和2其实是一个策略,都是借低利率货币投资于高利率货币的操作,都是赚取两国利差的,只是叫法不同而已。Carry trade 策略又叫做trade the forward rate bias.注意低利率货币叫做forward premium currency,高利率货币叫做forward discount currency。


Roll yield是另外的一个知识点,roll yield是由于持有forward或者futures合约而天然会产生的profit/loss,具体要根据现货价格来计算。

当期货价格>现货价格,即contango结构时,long futures的roll yield = (S-F)/S,为负;short futures的roll yield = (F-S)/S,为正;

当期货价格<现货价格,即backwardation结构时,long futures的roll yield =(S-F)/S,为正;short futures的roll yield = (F-S)/S,为负。

 

 

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