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玛卡巴卡 · 2023年05月29日

experience in the short-term

NO.PZ2018091901000051

问题如下:

Neshie Wakuluk is an investment strategist who determines whether any adjustments need to be made to her initial estimates of the respective aggregate economic growth trends based on historical rates of growth for Countries X and Y (both developed markets) and Country Z (a developing market). Exhibit 1 summarizes Wakuluk’s predictions:

Wakuluk assumes short-term interest rates adjust with expected inflation and are procyclical.

Based on Exhibit 1, what capital market effect is Country Z most likely to experience in the short-term?

选项:

A.

Cyclical assets attract investors.

B.

Monetary policy becomes restrictive.

C.

The yield curve steepens substantially.

解释:

B is correct.

Wakuluk’s model predicts that Country Z’s business cycle is currently in the late upswing phase. In the late upswing phase, interest rates are typically rising as monetary policy becomes more restrictive. Cyclical assets may underperform, whereas the yield curve is expected to continue to flatten.

解析:

依据Wakuluk的模型预测,Z国的商业周期目前处于后期上升阶段。在上升阶段的后期,利率通常会随着货币政策的收紧而上升。所以B选项正确

周期性资产可能表现不佳,而收益率曲线预计将继续趋平。所以AC的说法都有误。

B选项,是不是应该要考虑下一阶段也就是进入PEAK以后slowdown时候的经济市场表现呢,因为在经济扩张的过程中,货币政策已经在逐渐紧缩了,所以题目问再下一阶段,是不是就不再紧缩了呢

1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年05月29日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


是这样的同学,题目要求根据表一来回答。

表一说的是Z还是上升阶段,而且题目说的是短期,那就应该还是在这个阶段之类。

如果考虑到下一阶段,题目应该说NEXT STAGE。

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