NO.PZ2018113001000087
问题如下：
Tactical currency management methods
include fundamental analysis, technical analysis, carry trade, and volatility
trading.
What are the principles on which the method
of technical analysis is based?
选项：
解释：
Answer:
First, in a liquid, freely traded market
the historical price data can be helpful in projecting future price movements.
Second, market technicians believe that
historical patterns in the price data have a tendency to repeat. These price
patterns repeat because market prices reflect human behavior and human beings
have a tendency to react in similar ways to similar situations.
Third, technical analysis does not attempt
to determine where market prices should trade (fair value, as in fundamental
analysis) but where they will trade.
中文解析：
本题考察的是外汇管理四种方法中的技术分析方法，问的是技术分析方法基于的原则是什么。
有以下三点：
首先，在流动性强、交易自由的市场中，历史价格数据有助于预测未来的价格走势。
第二，市场技术人员认为，价格数据中的历史模式有重复的趋势。这些价格模式的重复是因为市场价格反映了人类的行为，而人类有一种倾向，对类似的情况作出类似的反应。
第三，技术分析并不试图确定市场价格应该在哪里交易(如基本面分析中的公允价值)，而是它们将在哪里交易。
如果这么写
1、fundamental analysis
focus on fair value of currency though analyzing macro economic fators.
determin whether the exchange rate is overavlued and undervalued.
2、technical analysis
the historical data have reflect all the information .
the pattern can be repeted.
the technical analysis will predict future price rather than where they should be traded.
3、carry trade
financing currency with a low yield, investing currency with a higher yield.
earn difference between yields under stable market condition.
4、volatility trading.
long option if expected increasing volatility
short option if expected reducing volatility
会是什么结局？
