NO.PZ2015121810000043
问题如下：
Which of the following financial assets is likely to offer the most effective hedge against bad consumption outcomes?
选项：
A.
Equities.
B.
Short-dated, default-free government bonds.
C.
Long-dated, default-free government bonds.
解释：
B is correct.
The relative certainty about the real payoff from short-dated, default-free government bonds, and therefore the relative certainty about the amount of consumption that the investor will be able to undertake with the payoff, indicates that an investment in such bonds would be a good hedge against bad consumption outcomes.
考点：default-free interest rates and economic growth
解析：consumption outcomes可以理解为实体经济，所以问的是哪一个可以对冲实体经济衰退。那就是短期国债。
因为经济差，股票表现也差，A错。而相对于长期国债，短期国债风险更小，所以短期国债是比较好的对冲经济衰退的工具。
我是这样思考长期国债的，相对于短期国债长期国债的久期更高，因此当央行降低利率的时候，长期国债价格变化，也就是上涨的更多从资本利得的角度来说，投资长期国债，由于价格上涨可以获得更多的收益，因此我会觉得是更好的对冲工具就是收益能拿得更多了，请问为什么我这样想不对呢而要选择短期。
