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Yaooo · 2023年05月14日

为什么ratio小于1 表示provision trail the actual chargeoff？

  1. CFA II
  2. FRA

NO.PZ2020021601000019

问题如下：

Judith Yoo is a financial sector analyst writing an industry report.

Part of Yoo’s analysis focuses on Company XYZ, a global commercial bank, and its CAMELS rating, risk management practices, and performance.

To assess Company XYZ’s risk management practices, Yoo reviews the loan loss analysis in Exhibit 4.

Based on Exhibit 4, a loan loss analysis for the last three years indicates that:

选项：

A.

Company XYZ has become less conservative in its provisioning for consumer loans.

B.

the provision for commercial loan losses has trailed the actual net charge- off experience.

C.

the cushion between the allowance and the net commercial loan charge- offs has declined.

解释：

C is correct.

The allowance for loan losses to net commercial loan charge- offs has been declining during the last three years, which indicates that the cushion between the allowance and the net commercial loan charge- offs has deteriorated.

2015 Consumer: Allowance for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=13,000/2,901=4.48

2016 Consumer: Allowance for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=11,500/2,505=4.59

2017 Consumer: Allowance for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=11,000/2,460=4.47

2015 Commercial: Allowance for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=169/44=3.84

2016 Commercial: Allowance for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=1,012/387=2.61

2017 Commercial: Allowance for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=1,540/1,060=1.45

2015 Consumer: Provision for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=1,300/2,901=0.45

2016 Consumer: Provision for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=2,000/2,505=0.80

2017 Consumer: Provision for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=3,000/2,460=1.22

2015 Commercial: Provision for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=95/44=2.16

2016 Commercial: Provision for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=442/387=1.14

2017 Commercial: Provision for Loan Losses/Net Loan Charge-Offs=1,100/1,060=1.04

为什么provision/net chargeoff ratio小于1 表示provision trail the actual chargeoff？没太理解trail的含义，管理预期损失小于真正的损失（charge off）那不是没跟踪上吗？

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王园圆_品职助教 · 2023年05月14日

同学你好，这里的trail是指“落后于”而不是“跟踪上了“的意思

这个ratio小于1，说明的就是公司计提的损失准备小于了真实的坏账发生额，是不好的一件事情

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