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fresh · 2023年05月10日

Output gap above trend 

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NO.PZ202206070100000503

问题如下:

Among the three countries examined by the investment team, which is in the most attractive phase of the business cycle for equity returns?

选项:

A.Hungary

B.Ireland

C.Spain

解释:

Solution

A is correct. The most favorable phases when considering equity returns are initial recovery and early upswing; the late upswing, slowdown, and recession phases carry the greater risk for equities.

Hungary has the combination of factors consistent with the initial recovery/early upswing phases of the business cycle—increasing production, low inflation, improving confidence, stimulatory fiscal/monetary policies, and abundant capacity. These indicators point to strongly rising stock prices and therefore most attractive for equity returns.

C is incorrect as discussed above. Spain appears to be in late upswing with high production, exuberant confidence and rising inflation, and restrictive fiscal/monetary policies. Stocks would be topping out and often volatile.

B is incorrect as discussed above. Ireland is likely at risk of entering a recession with production, utilization and inflation each above long-term averages while confidence is weakening. Fiscal/monetary policies are on a cautionary note. Stocks would be in bottoming/starting to rise stage.

本题考查的是大类资产在不同经济阶段的表现。

A是正确的。考虑股票收益时,最有利的阶段是最初的复苏和早期的上升阶段;最后的上涨、放缓和衰退阶段给股市带来了更大的风险。

匈牙利拥有与商业周期初期复苏/早期上升阶段相一致的因素组合——生产增加、低通胀、信心改善、刺激性的财政/货币政策和充裕的产能。这些指标表明股价将强劲上涨,因此对股票回报最有吸引力。

如上所述,C是不正确的。西班牙似乎正处于经济增长的后期,生产旺盛,信心旺盛,通胀上升,实行限制性的财政/货币政策。股市将触顶,而且面临经常波动。

B是不正确的,如上所述。爱尔兰可能面临进入衰退的风险,生产、利用率和通胀均高于长期平均水平,而信心却在减弱。财政/货币政策处于谨慎状态。股票将经历触底/开始上涨阶段。

请问trend什么意思?和泰勒rule里 expected GDP-trend GDP?well above trend 和 above trend 怎么理解?谢谢

2 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2024年02月07日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


output gap,产出缺口,高于trend还是理解为经济过热比较好。至少在本题中,它是经济已经进入扩张晚期,即将衰退的表现。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!

源_品职助教 · 2023年05月10日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


这里TREND可以理解为没有强经济刺激下的经济自然增长率。也可以理解为不会引发高通胀的经济健康成长的增长率。

above trend没有特殊含义,需要结合上下文,有可能表明经济增长过热,需要担心通胀问题。不客气~

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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来,我们正在朝着它而去,加油!

沪上小王子 · 2024年02月07日

但是题目中讲的是output gap,产出缺口,高于trend,这个就不是经济增长过热吧,而是经济增长还有空间,并未到达过热的状态

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NO.PZ202206070100000503问题如下 Among the three countries examinethe investment team, whiis in the most attractive phase of the business cycle for equity returns?A.HungaryB.Irelan.Spain SolutionA is correct. The most favorable phases when consiring equity returns are initirecovery anearly upswing; the late upswing, slowwn, anrecession phases carry the greater risk for equities.Hungary hthe combination of factors consistent with the initirecovery/early upswing phases of the business cycle—increasing proction, low inflation, improving confince, stimulatory fiscal/monetary policies, anabunnt capacity. These incators point to strongly rising stoprices antherefore most attractive for equity returns.C is incorrescusseabove. Spain appears to in late upswing with high proction, exuberant confinanrising inflation, anrestrictive fiscal/monetary policies. Stocks woultopping out anoften volatile.B is incorrescusseabove. Irelanis likely risk of entering a recession with proction, utilization aninflation eaabove long-term averages while confinis weakening. Fiscal/monetary policies are on a cautionary note. Stocks woulin bottoming/starting to rise stage.本题考查的是大类资产在不同经济阶段的表现。A是正确的。考虑股票收益时,最有利的阶段是最初的复苏和早期的上升阶段;最后的上涨、放缓和衰退阶段给股市带来了更大的风险。匈牙利拥有与商业周期初期复苏/早期上升阶段相一致的因素组合——生产增加、低通胀、信心改善、刺激性的财政/货币政策和充裕的产能。这些指标表明股价将强劲上涨,因此对股票回报最有吸引力。如上所述,C是不正确的。西班牙似乎正处于经济增长的后期,生产旺盛,信心旺盛,通胀上升,实行限制性的财政/货币政策。股市将触顶,而且面临经常波动。B是不正确的,如上所述。爱尔兰可能面临进入衰退的风险,生产、利用率和通胀均高于长期平均水平,而信心却在减弱。财政/货币政策处于谨慎状态。股票将经历触底/开始上涨阶段。 我觉得爱尔兰是在early expansion阶段,为什么答案说爱尔兰在衰退阶段?

2022-06-24 00:13 2 · 回答