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toffee · 2023年05月07日

答法

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NO.PZ202110280100000702

问题如下:

Identify the type of error Connell is at risk of committing and its associated cost for each alternative. Justify your selection.

选项:

解释:

Alternative 1

If Connell avoids the Eta fund because of its recent underperformance, with performance reverting to the mean, he is at risk of making a Type II error (by not retaining managers with skill). A Type II error is an error of omission or inaction, or in this case, the opportunity cost associated with not hiring Eta and seeing its performance improve.

Alternative 2

If Connell selects the Theta fund because of its recent superior performance, with performance reverting to the mean, he is at risk of making a Type I error. A Type I error occurs when hiring or retaining a manager who subsequently underperforms expectations. The cost of a Type I error is explicit and relatively straightforward to measure.

In deciding which fund to hire, the goal is to avoid making decisions based on short-term performance (trend following) and to identify evidence of behavioral biases in the evaluation of managers during the selection process.

以下是我的答法,应该可以把?

for alternative 1 

the Eta fund is mean reverting as better performance,but he avoids the Eta fund.

it is type II error,which is omission error

for alternative 2 

the Theta fund is mean reverting as worse performance, but he invests the Theta fund.

it is type I error,which is commission error

1 个答案

pzqa015 · 2023年05月08日

嗨,努力学习的PZer你好:


可以的。

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努力的时光都是限量版,加油!