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TZXคิดถึง · 2023年05月06日

请问一下这道题。

NO.PZ2023040701000114

问题如下:

With respect to the credit quality of UNAB, Watt makes the following statement:

"There is severe near-term stress in the financial markets and UNAB's credit curve clearly reflects the difficult environment."

According to Watt's statement, the shape of UNAB's credit curve is most likely

选项:

A.

flat

B.

upward-sloping

C.

downward-sloping

解释:

Correct Answer: C

A downward-sloping credit curve implies a greater probability of default in the earlier years than in the later years. Downward-sloping curves are less common and often are the result of severe near-teen stress in the financial markets.

A is incorrect because a flat credit curve implies a constant hazard rate (relevant probability of default). B is incorrect because an upward-sloping credit curve implies a greater probability of default in later years.

There is severe near-term stress in the financial markets and UNAB's credit curve clearly reflects the difficult environment.

我理解这句话是说近期处于危机之中,信用曲线反映了艰难的市场环境。

意味着现在处于经济危机之中,那不就是信用曲线向上倾斜吗?向下倾斜意味着未来经济会变好,从题干中哪句话可以看到未来经济变好?

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已采纳答案

pzqa31 · 2023年05月06日

嗨,爱思考的PZer你好:


同学,这道题 severe near-term stress是说马上要经济危机了,是在危机前,此时投资者出于避险情绪,会更倾向购买无风险资产(国债),所以短期公司债收益(credit spread)会上涨,但是投资者对长期的预期不会突然发生很大变化,也就说投资者认为短期比长期更可能违约,所以会出现credit curve的反转(向下倾斜)。


在正常情况下credit spread curve是向上倾斜的,代表长期对信用风险的补偿大于短期,因为长期不确定性更大,所以要给予更高的风险补偿,

如果曲线反转,意味着短期的credit spread>长期credit spread,表明短期的风险急剧升高,那么也就是经济下行了。



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