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CC · 2023年05月05日

经济危机的信号

  1. CFA II
  2. Economics Analysis

NO.PZ2018091706000064

问题如下：

Beauregard has concerns about the firm’s experiences during currency crises. She recalls reading a study produced by the IMF that an impending currency crisis is signaled by numerous economic variables. She makes the following statements with regard to some of these variables:

1. Trade balances exhibit substantial decline prior to the crisis.

2. A country has distinctive economic growth patterns ahead of the crisis.

3. Inflation is significantly higher in the pre-crisisperiod.

Which of Beauregard’s statements regarding a currency crisis is the most accurate?


选项：

A.

Statement 3

B.

Statement 2

C.

Statement 1

解释：

Statement 3 is the most accurate. Inflation tends to be significantly higher in pre-crisisperiods compared with tranquil periods.

解析：A选项最准确的。与平静时期相比，危机前时期的通胀率往往要高得多。

C选项错误，the terms of trade而非Trade balances下降。如果是Trade balances大幅下降，表明危机已经发生，就不是危机的信号了。

B选项错误，因为危机发生前，经济不会有什么额外的增长。

这道题c选项，如何理解？我理解经济不是呈现充满泡沫的繁荣的状态么？ 这种繁荣是虚假的 就不能说经济是向好的 对么？

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1 个答案

笛子_品职助教 · 2023年05月06日

嗨，努力学习的PZer你好：


这道题c选项，如何理解？

这道题是选择危机前的信号。

C选项说，贸易账户大幅下降，这不是危机前的信号，这是危机中的信号，因此不选C。


我理解经济不是呈现充满泡沫的繁荣的状态么？

不一定总是充满泡沫。有的阶段会充满泡沫。


这种繁荣是虚假的 就不能说经济是向好的 对么？

可以这么理解。但是这道题并没有涉及到，如何判断繁荣是真的还是假的，这个议题。

这道题是说，经济危机还没有出现的时候，有没有可以提前预警的信号。

对于C选项，Trade balances下降不是预警信号。the terms of trade是预警信号。


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就算太阳没有迎着我们而来，我们正在朝着它而去，加油！

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