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追梦赤子 · 2023年05月05日

文中只说是预期,没有说已经发生,为啥答案解释说是已经发生呢?

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NO.PZ202304060100006101

问题如下:

Which of the following is the most likely impact on short-term bond prices if Quantum’s expectations regarding the payroll report are correct?

选项:

A.

No change

B.

Fall

C.

Rise

解释:

A is correct. Although Quantum is forecasting a fairly low non-farm payroll number, their expectation is in line with market consensus forecasts. Although these data might be considered weak, they provides information that is anticipated and thus already reflected in asset prices. Prices would be more likely to rise or fall if the news is a surprise relative to fully anticipated information.

B is incorrect. Bond prices are unlikely to rise or fall based on this information because it is already anticipated by the market.

C is incorrect. Bond prices are unlikely to rise or fall based on this information because it is already anticipated by the market.

they provides information that is anticipated and thus already reflected in asset prices.

1 个答案

星星_品职助教 · 2023年05月05日

同学你好,

问题中的“if Quantum’s expectations regarding the payroll report are correct”指的是如果Q的预测正确的实现了,债券价格会怎么变。

Q的预测是payroll和市场预期一致。如果Q的预测正确,就说明实现的payroll确实和市场预期一致。也就是答案解释的“已经发生”的由来。

由于价格没有超过或者低于预期,所有的信息已经反应在当前的价格里,当前价格就不会发生变化。

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