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IanZQ · 2023年05月02日

这题怎么和公式不一样?

* 问题详情,请 查看题干

NO.PZ202206070100000403

问题如下:

Based on how the Taylor rule is applied by Li’s team, the central bank’s estimated optimal short-term rate is closest to:

选项:

A.2.8%. B.1.5%. C.2.0%.

解释:

Solution

C is correct. The Taylor rule sets the optimal short-term rate as

Neutral rate + 0.5 × (GDP growth forecast – GDP growth trend) + 0.5 × (Inflation forecast – Inflation target)

Applying numbers from Exhibit 3,

2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5 × (2.0% - 1.0%) + 0.5 × (1.5% - 3.5%).

A is incorrect. The difference between the earnings trend and forecast is included with each difference between forecast and trend being weighted by 0.333.

2.8% = 2.5% + 0.333 × (2.0% – 1.0%) + 0.333 × (1.5% -– 3.5%) + 0.333 × (4.0% – 2.0%)

B is incorrect. The inflation and GDP adjustments are not multiplied by 0.5.

本题考查的是泰勒公式

C是正确的。泰勒规则将最优短期利率设为

中性利率+ 0.5 × (GDP增长预测- GDP增长趋势)+ 0.5 ×(通胀预测-通胀目标)

2.0% = 2.5% + 0.5××(2.0% - 1.0%)+ 0.5(1.5% - 3.5%)

A是不正确的。收益趋势和预测之间的差异被包括在内,预测和趋势之间的每个差异被错误地使用了0.333加权。

B是不正确的。通胀和GDP的调整没有乘以0.5

中性利率2.5,是不是还要expected inflation. 为啥漏掉了




1 个答案

源_品职助教 · 2023年05月04日

嗨,从没放弃的小努力你好:


泰勒公式都是要加上通胀这一项。

教材改版后,原版书公式就是这么写的。

这题的是经典题补充讲义里的题目,

里面收录了一部分教材改写前的题目,所以没加。

老师上课有提到,这些题目了解思路即可。上了考场还是要按加了的公式计算。

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